Monte Carlo Masters · QF · Clay · 10 Apr 2026
Alexander Bublik v Carlos Alcaraz
38–59 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 11.6 more points than Alexander Bublik relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Bublik's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, touch execution −2.0, slice shot selection −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.1 | +2.3 | +2.3 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.5 | +1.1 | −3.4 | −1.8 | +0.7 | +2.0 | +0.7 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.3 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.5 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.9 | −0.8 | −2.9 | ±0.0 | −3.8 | +2.5 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | −1.1 | −0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | −2.0 | −2.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.7 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −0.7 | −3.6 | −3.4 | +1.4 | −1.0 | +7.7 | +8.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | +4.6 | −5.3 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | +3.6 | −6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 67% | – | 59% 36% |
| 2 | 50% 25% | – | 50% 25% |
Set to set +1.99 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 58% | – | 45% 70% |
| 2 | 55% 75% | 5% 100% | 41% 44% |
Within sets −0.92 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
3.4 points left on the table across 175 shots 1.95 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
3.6 points left on the table across 175 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit FH drop shot inside-out ×1; FH drop shot inside-in rates higher · 0.14 pts