BJK Cup Group I · RR · Clay · 10 Apr 2026
Suzan Lamens v Malene Helgo
116–102 in points · Suzan Lamens won
Why it went the way it did
Suzan Lamens won 7.2 more points than Malene Helgo relative to what the serve alone predicted. Malene Helgo's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.4, backhand execution −2.1, slice execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Suzan Lamens | Malene Helgo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −1.0 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −2.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.6 | −2.7 | −2.6 | +0.1 | −0.9 | +0.4 | −0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +3.0 | +2.8 | +6.3 | −0.2 | +3.3 | −7.4 | −4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.8 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +0.6 | +1.8 | −2.1 | +0.3 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −2.7 | −0.3 | −3.4 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −2.0 | −2.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.2 | +1.0 | −1.8 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.2 | −2.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −1.6 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −1.5 | −0.1 | +4.4 | −13.0 | −8.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Suzan Lamens | Malene Helgo | Net, Suzan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | +1.0 | +1.1 | |
| 2 | −3.9 | −7.1 | +3.2 | |
| 3 | +0.3 | −2.6 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Suzan Lamens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 85% | 33% 50% | 31% 64% |
| 2 | 43% 50% | 27% 50% | 30% 73% |
| 3 | 19% 60% | 44% 75% | 37% 60% |
Set to set +0.57 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Malene Helgo serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 38% | 45% 71% | 34% 69% |
| 2 | 38% 58% | 36% 39% | 26% 54% |
| 3 | 38% 56% | 38% 56% | 25% 67% |
Set to set −1.30 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.73 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Suzan Lamens
11.3 points left on the table across 408 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×18; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
Malene Helgo
9.9 points left on the table across 412 shots 2.41 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.47 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts