Stuttgart · R16 · Clay · 15 Apr 2026
Iga Swiatek v Laura Siegemund
62–42 in points · Iga Swiatek won
Why it went the way it did
Iga Swiatek won 10.0 more points than Laura Siegemund relative to what the serve alone predicted. Laura Siegemund's biggest leaks: return execution −2.4, slice shot selection −2.3, forehand execution −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Iga Swiatek | Laura Siegemund | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.9 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.0 | −0.8 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.8 | −2.2 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.4 | +3.3 | +4.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | −1.5 | −0.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | +0.3 | −2.0 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +0.9 | +1.8 | +3.7 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −6.0 | −6.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Iga Swiatek | Laura Siegemund | Net, Iga | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.0 | −2.9 | +5.9 | |
| 2 | +0.7 | −3.4 | +4.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Iga Swiatek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 91% | 22% 20% | 30% 71% |
| 2 | 38% 55% | 17% 60% | 45% 69% |
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Laura Siegemund serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 55% | 27% 63% | 37% 27% |
| 2 | 45% 50% | 23% 80% | 32% 14% |
Set to set +1.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Iga Swiatek
2.3 points left on the table across 141 shots 1.63 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Laura Siegemund
4.2 points left on the table across 143 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH slice crosscourt ×1; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts