Barcelona · QF · Clay · 17 Apr 2026
Arthur Fils v Lorenzo Musetti
61–48 in points · Arthur Fils won
Why it went the way it did
Arthur Fils won 7.3 more points than Lorenzo Musetti relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lorenzo Musetti's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.4, return shot selection −1.5, backhand execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Arthur Fils | Lorenzo Musetti | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | +3.3 | +3.4 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +5.0 | +5.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +2.6 | +2.7 | +0.1 | −1.5 | +1.6 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +2.7 | −0.5 | +2.8 | −0.1 | +1.8 | +0.8 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.8 | +0.3 | −5.4 | ±0.0 | −5.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| All shots | +1.4 | +1.8 | +6.6 | +9.8 | +0.7 | −5.1 | +6.9 | +2.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Arthur Fils | Lorenzo Musetti | Net, Arthur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.8 | +0.9 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | +5.0 | +1.6 | +3.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Arthur Fils serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 76% | – | 35% 78% |
| 2 | 48% 75% | – | 52% 85% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lorenzo Musetti serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 62% | – | 55% 63% |
| 2 | 45% 85% | – | 55% 50% |
Set to set +0.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Arthur Fils
3.4 points left on the table across 204 shots 1.68 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drop shot to your middle hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.15 pts
Lorenzo Musetti
4.8 points left on the table across 207 shots 2.32 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts