Madrid · SF · Clay · 30 Apr 2026
Marta Kostyuk v Anastasia Potapova
74–68 in points · Marta Kostyuk won
Why it went the way it did
Marta Kostyuk won 2.8 more points than Anastasia Potapova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anastasia Potapova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.6, return execution −1.9, serve 2nd execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marta Kostyuk | Anastasia Potapova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.1 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | −1.2 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.9 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.1 | −2.6 | −1.4 | −0.1 | +1.1 | −3.6 | −2.6 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.9 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −1.4 | −1.6 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −4.9 | +1.2 | −3.9 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Touch | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 | −1.9 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −4.6 | −4.7 | −9.2 | +0.6 | −1.2 | −11.3 | −12.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Marta Kostyuk | Anastasia Potapova | Net, Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.8 | −6.6 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | −5.8 | +1.1 | −6.9 | |
| 3 | −1.6 | −6.4 | +4.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marta Kostyuk serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 69% | 4% 100% | 42% 70% |
| 2 | 54% 38% | 4% 0% | 42% 10% |
| 3 | 40% 80% | 20% 20% | 40% 70% |
Set to set −0.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anastasia Potapova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 50% | 3% 100% | 48% 50% |
| 2 | 41% 43% | 12% 0% | 47% 75% |
| 3 | 52% 67% | 9% 0% | 39% 22% |
Set to set −3.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marta Kostyuk
6.8 points left on the table across 248 shots 2.73 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Anastasia Potapova
6.2 points left on the table across 254 shots 2.43 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts