Madrid · F · Clay · 2 May 2026
Marta Kostyuk v Mirra Andreeva
66–50 in points · Marta Kostyuk won
Why it went the way it did
Marta Kostyuk won 7.4 more points than Mirra Andreeva relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mirra Andreeva's biggest leaks: net execution −1.8, slice shot selection −1.3, touch execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marta Kostyuk | Mirra Andreeva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.5 | −2.1 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.4 | −1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.2 | +5.2 | +7.5 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | −0.8 | +0.6 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.9 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +1.2 | +1.5 | +3.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.0 | +0.4 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +0.4 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.3 | +1.4 | −0.8 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +1.0 | −1.8 | −1.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.1 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +1.1 | +4.0 | +6.4 | +0.1 | +1.2 | −2.4 | −1.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Marta Kostyuk | Mirra Andreeva | Net, Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.9 | −0.6 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | +2.5 | −0.4 | +2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marta Kostyuk serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 62% 83% | 3% 0% | 34% 70% |
| 2 | 71% 54% | 6% 0% | 24% 88% |
Set to set +1.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 63% | 10% 50% | 52% 64% |
| 2 | 44% 57% | 3% 100% | 53% 41% |
Within sets −1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marta Kostyuk
5.0 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Mirra Andreeva
5.8 points left on the table across 205 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts