Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 24 May 2026
Barbora Krejcikova v Hailey Baptiste
101–113 in points · Hailey Baptiste won
Why it went the way it did
Hailey Baptiste won 5.4 more points than Barbora Krejcikova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Barbora Krejcikova's biggest leaks: return execution −6.9, net execution −4.1, slice shot selection −3.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Barbora Krejcikova | Hailey Baptiste | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | +2.1 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Return | +0.2 | −1.9 | −6.9 | −8.7 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −3.0 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | −1.2 | +1.3 | −1.7 | −1.6 | −1.9 | +1.6 | −6.7 | −7.0 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.6 | −3.5 | −4.6 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −2.8 | −3.6 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −3.9 | −0.1 | −4.2 | −0.1 | −2.4 | −0.6 | −3.1 |
| Net | −0.8 | +1.3 | −4.1 | −3.6 | −0.5 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −0.8 | −2.0 |
| All shots | −2.5 | −4.1 | −14.1 | −20.8 | −4.0 | −0.8 | −10.6 | −15.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Barbora Krejcikova | Hailey Baptiste | Net, Barbora | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −8.2 | −9.1 | +0.9 | |
| 2 | −7.4 | −5.4 | −2.0 | |
| 3 | −5.2 | −0.8 | −4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Barbora Krejcikova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 75% | 21% 89% | 40% 65% |
| 2 | 45% 83% | 30% 42% | 25% 60% |
| 3 | 63% 53% | 29% 43% | 8% 100% |
Set to set +1.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Hailey Baptiste serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 92% | 25% 80% | 43% 53% |
| 2 | 33% 77% | 38% 67% | 30% 67% |
| 3 | 67% 72% | 26% 71% | 7% 50% |
Set to set +1.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.35 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Barbora Krejcikova
10.9 points left on the table across 316 shots 3.45 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×11; BH down the line rates higher · 0.70 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle hit Smash through the middle ×4; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.61 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
Hailey Baptiste
12.0 points left on the table across 312 shots 3.85 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH down the line rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts