Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 25 May 2026
Lois Boisson v Anna Kalinskaya
42–61 in points · Anna Kalinskaya won
Why it went the way it did
Anna Kalinskaya won 8.2 more points than Lois Boisson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lois Boisson's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.6, backhand execution −3.5, touch execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Lois Boisson | Anna Kalinskaya | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.0 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.6 | +1.9 | +3.9 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +1.1 | +2.1 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.3 | −3.5 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −2.0 | −2.6 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −5.6 | −0.3 | −6.2 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −0.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −1.8 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −1.3 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −3.9 | −4.6 | −8.5 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +1.2 | −0.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Lois Boisson | Anna Kalinskaya | Net, Lois | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.3 | +0.8 | −5.1 | |
| 2 | −4.2 | −1.1 | −3.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Lois Boisson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 43% | 16% 0% | 47% 44% |
| 2 | 48% 60% | 14% 33% | 38% 25% |
Within sets −0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Anna Kalinskaya serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 67% | 35% 56% | 19% 60% |
| 2 | 51% 53% | 24% 67% | 24% 56% |
Within sets +1.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Lois Boisson
5.7 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×14; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Anna Kalinskaya
5.0 points left on the table across 193 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts