s Hertogenbosch · R32 · Grass · 8 Jun 2026
Elise Mertens v Bianca Andreescu
54–30 in points · Elise Mertens won
Why it went the way it did
Elise Mertens won 12.7 more points than Bianca Andreescu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bianca Andreescu's biggest leaks: return execution −2.3, touch execution −2.1, serve 1st execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elise Mertens | Bianca Andreescu | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −1.8 | −1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −2.3 | −2.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +2.8 | +3.5 | +0.2 | +1.6 | −0.5 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.3 | +3.5 | +3.9 | −0.4 | +0.7 | +0.4 | +0.7 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −0.9 | +1.5 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −0.4 | −1.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.9 | −1.1 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −2.1 | −2.4 |
| All shots | +0.1 | −0.6 | +6.5 | +6.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −7.5 | −6.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Elise Mertens | Bianca Andreescu | Net, Elise | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.8 | −3.4 | +6.2 | |
| 2 | +3.3 | −3.2 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elise Mertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 75% | 25% 80% | 35% 86% |
| 2 | 35% 100% | 10% 50% | 55% 73% |
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bianca Andreescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 57% | 35% 33% | 24% 50% |
| 2 | 54% 57% | 23% 50% | 23% 33% |
Within sets −0.63 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elise Mertens
4.0 points left on the table across 151 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
Bianca Andreescu
4.6 points left on the table across 155 shots 2.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts