Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 29 Jun 2026
Bianca Andreescu v Shuai Zhang
85–100 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Shuai Zhang won 7.9 more points than Bianca Andreescu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Bianca Andreescu's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.8, net execution −2.3, touch execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bianca Andreescu | Shuai Zhang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.8 | +0.3 | +2.3 | +1.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.1 | +1.0 | +2.9 | +4.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +2.7 | +3.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +3.5 | +0.8 | +4.5 | +0.1 | +2.8 | +4.3 | +7.1 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +1.2 | +0.9 | +1.4 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | +1.4 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −3.8 | +0.4 | −3.8 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.5 | +0.3 | −2.3 | −2.5 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| Touch | −0.3 | +0.2 | −1.9 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −1.0 |
| All shots | −2.6 | +2.7 | +3.9 | +4.1 | −0.2 | +2.1 | +10.1 | +12.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Bianca Andreescu | Shuai Zhang | Net, Bianca | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | +6.4 | −4.2 | |
| 2 | +1.9 | +5.7 | −3.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bianca Andreescu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 56% | 35% 29% | 33% 81% |
| 2 | 33% 40% | 33% 60% | 35% 75% |
Set to set +0.46 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Shuai Zhang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26% 75% | 13% 33% | 62% 66% |
| 2 | 33% 43% | 17% 57% | 50% 90% |
Set to set +0.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bianca Andreescu
11.5 points left on the table across 305 shots 3.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×2; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Shuai Zhang
9.1 points left on the table across 313 shots 2.92 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts