Wimbledon · QF · Grass · 7 Jul 2026
Karolina Muchova v Naomi Osaka
84–69 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 9.5 more points than Naomi Osaka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Naomi Osaka's biggest leaks: return execution −4.6, backhand execution −2.5, net execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.9 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.8 | −0.2 | +1.1 | −4.6 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | −0.8 | +1.8 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +0.8 | −0.8 | +0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.4 | +0.3 | −0.1 | −2.5 | −2.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −2.4 | −2.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +2.8 | +3.1 | +0.8 | +1.4 | −8.6 | −6.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Karolina Muchova | Naomi Osaka | Net, Karolina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.9 | −1.8 | +2.8 | |
| 2 | +2.1 | −4.6 | +6.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 55% | 12% 60% | 40% 71% |
| 2 | 39% 67% | 17% 100% | 43% 100% |
Set to set −0.49 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.80 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Naomi Osaka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 61% | 13% 50% | 47% 52% |
| 2 | 47% 50% | 12% 40% | 42% 72% |
Set to set +0.60 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.15 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karolina Muchova
5.9 points left on the table across 182 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Naomi Osaka
4.2 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×7; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts