Toronto · R32 · Hard · 6 Aug 2026
Iga Swiatek v Viktorija Golubic
54–29 in points · Iga Swiatek won
Why it went the way it did
Iga Swiatek won 12.6 more points than Viktorija Golubic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Viktorija Golubic's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −4.9, touch shot selection −0.9, backhand execution −0.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Iga Swiatek | Viktorija Golubic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.4 | +0.7 | +1.7 | +2.7 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +2.0 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.4 | +1.4 | +3.1 | −0.2 | +0.8 | +1.1 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +3.0 | +3.7 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.5 | −0.2 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −4.9 | +0.4 | −4.4 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
| All shots | +0.8 | +1.9 | +7.8 | +10.5 | −0.5 | −4.4 | +2.9 | −2.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Iga Swiatek | Viktorija Golubic | Net, Iga | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.0 | −2.0 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | +6.5 | −0.1 | +6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Iga Swiatek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 77% | 10% 50% | 25% 40% |
| 2 | 38% 88% | 19% 50% | 43% 78% |
Within sets −1.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Viktorija Golubic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 23% | 15% 75% | 37% 50% |
| 2 | 40% 33% | – | 60% 44% |
Within sets −1.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Iga Swiatek
4.6 points left on the table across 224 shots 2.06 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Viktorija Golubic
6.4 points left on the table across 223 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH lob down the line ×2; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts