Toronto · R32 · Hard · 6 Aug 2026
Talia Gibson v Ekaterina Alexandrova
70–93 in points · Ekaterina Alexandrova won
Why it went the way it did
Ekaterina Alexandrova won 11.5 more points than Talia Gibson relative to what the serve alone predicted. Talia Gibson's biggest leaks: backhand execution −5.3, return execution −4.9, forehand execution −3.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Talia Gibson | Ekaterina Alexandrova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.6 | −0.3 | −4.9 | −4.7 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −3.3 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.7 | −3.4 | −2.9 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +1.6 | +2.4 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.1 | −5.3 | −5.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −1.5 | −0.5 | −1.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −0.7 | −15.2 | −15.0 | +0.3 | −1.1 | −2.8 | −3.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Talia Gibson | Ekaterina Alexandrova | Net, Talia | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.8 | −5.8 | +1.0 | |
| 2 | −5.2 | +2.8 | −8.0 | |
| 3 | −5.1 | −0.6 | −4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Talia Gibson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 76% | 5% 100% | 39% 53% |
| 2 | 52% 33% | 4% 0% | 43% 50% |
| 3 | 30% 33% | – | 70% 57% |
Set to set −1.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Ekaterina Alexandrova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 76% | 24% 44% | 21% 63% |
| 2 | 50% 88% | 25% 50% | 25% 100% |
| 3 | 57% 75% | 21% 50% | 21% 67% |
Set to set +1.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.54 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Talia Gibson
4.5 points left on the table across 198 shots 2.25 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
Ekaterina Alexandrova
4.5 points left on the table across 191 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts