Toronto · R16 · Hard · 9 Aug 2026
Leylah Fernandez v Naomi Osaka
49–64 in points · Naomi Osaka won
Why it went the way it did
Naomi Osaka won 7.6 more points than Leylah Fernandez relative to what the serve alone predicted. Leylah Fernandez's biggest leaks: backhand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −1.4, serve 1st execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Leylah Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.7 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | −0.3 | −0.7 | +1.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −2.2 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.5 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +2.1 | +3.4 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.5 | −2.9 | −2.4 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 | +1.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.4 | +0.5 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.2 | −1.3 | −1.9 | −3.4 | +0.6 | +1.8 | +1.9 | +4.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Leylah Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | Net, Leylah | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.4 | +1.0 | −2.4 | |
| 2 | −2.0 | +3.2 | −5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Leylah Fernandez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 50% | 24% 50% | 28% 71% |
| 2 | 34% 64% | 19% 67% | 47% 60% |
Within sets −0.29 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Naomi Osaka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 81% | 12% 25% | 39% 54% |
| 2 | 43% 80% | 4% 100% | 52% 92% |
Set to set −0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.39 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Leylah Fernandez
5.4 points left on the table across 166 shots 3.25 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-out rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Naomi Osaka
4.1 points left on the table across 182 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts