Cincinnati · R64 · Hard · 16 Aug 2026
Mirra Andreeva v Oleksandra Oliynykova
66–35 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 14.7 more points than Oleksandra Oliynykova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Oleksandra Oliynykova's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, slice shot selection −3.5, forehand execution −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Mirra Andreeva | Oleksandra Oliynykova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 |
| Return | −0.4 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +2.3 | +0.3 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +1.6 | −0.3 | +0.8 | −1.5 | −0.9 |
| Backhand | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.6 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −4.0 | −3.1 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −2.1 | −0.4 | −2.6 | −0.2 | −3.5 | +1.4 | −2.3 |
| Net | +0.3 | +1.0 | −0.5 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.2 | −1.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.9 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.5 | +1.0 | +3.8 | +5.3 | −0.2 | −2.7 | −6.5 | −9.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Mirra Andreeva | Oleksandra Oliynykova | Net, Mirra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.9 | −4.1 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | +3.5 | −5.3 | +8.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 75% | 11% 50% | 35% 46% |
| 2 | 67% 75% | 6% 100% | 28% 60% |
Set to set +1.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Oleksandra Oliynykova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 27% | 27% 50% | 37% 55% |
| 2 | 29% 0% | 29% 0% | 43% 33% |
Set to set −0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −3.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Mirra Andreeva
5.2 points left on the table across 187 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH inside-out ×1; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: slice to your forehand side hit FH slice crosscourt ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Oleksandra Oliynykova
5.3 points left on the table across 191 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts