US Open · R128 · Hard · 31 Aug 2026
Karolina Muchova v Sinja Kraus
54–26 in points · Karolina Muchova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Muchova won 14.1 more points than Sinja Kraus relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sinja Kraus's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.7, backhand execution −4.4, net execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karolina Muchova | Sinja Kraus | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +1.8 | +2.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −4.7 | −3.8 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.9 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −4.4 | −3.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.5 | +0.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −1.8 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.2 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +2.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −13.0 | −12.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Karolina Muchova | Sinja Kraus | Net, Karolina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.7 | −5.3 | +4.6 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −6.9 | +9.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karolina Muchova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% 87% | 4% 100% | 36% 67% |
| 2 | 57% 75% | 7% 100% | 36% 100% |
Within sets +0.66 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sinja Kraus serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 62% | 4% 100% | 46% 58% |
| 2 | 53% 0% | 20% 33% | 27% 50% |
Within sets −0.49 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karolina Muchova
3.5 points left on the table across 120 shots 2.88 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Sinja Kraus
3.4 points left on the table across 130 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts