US Open · R32 · Hard · 5 Sep 2026
Nikola Bartunkova v Mirra Andreeva
59–75 in points · Mirra Andreeva won
Why it went the way it did
Mirra Andreeva won 8.9 more points than Nikola Bartunkova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nikola Bartunkova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.9, slice shot selection −2.6, return execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nikola Bartunkova | Mirra Andreeva | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +0.1 | −1.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.4 | +1.1 | −1.9 | −1.1 | −0.7 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.7 | −2.9 | −1.6 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +1.5 | +3.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +2.5 | −0.6 | +2.1 | −0.1 | +1.4 | −0.6 | +0.7 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.6 | +0.5 | −2.2 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −0.3 | −2.4 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.3 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +2.8 | −9.1 | −6.7 | −0.7 | +2.0 | +0.9 | +2.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Nikola Bartunkova | Mirra Andreeva | Net, Nikola | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.0 | +2.4 | −5.4 | |
| 2 | −3.6 | −0.2 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nikola Bartunkova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 33% | – | 57% 63% |
| 2 | 40% 44% | 13% 50% | 47% 67% |
Within sets −0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mirra Andreeva serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55% 75% | 9% 100% | 36% 63% |
| 2 | 49% 63% | 23% 67% | 28% 64% |
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nikola Bartunkova
7.5 points left on the table across 210 shots 3.59 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Mirra Andreeva
7.9 points left on the table across 215 shots 3.66 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×5; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH inside-out ×1; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.24 pts