Game plan

Daniel Evans v Mariano Zabaleta

Every number combines what Daniel Evans does well with what Mariano Zabaleta allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Daniel Evans serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Daniel wins	v Mariano	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	31%	74%	69%	70.1%±11.0	44% ▲
Body	12%	62%	59%	58.0%±15.1	0% ▼
T	57%	73%	78%	76.5%±9.3	56%

Optimal v Mariano Zabaleta: +0.5±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Daniel wins	v Mariano	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	73%	64%	64.0%±9.3	53% ▼
Body	9%	57%	64%	58.2%±16.3	0% ▼
T	34%	67%	76%	72.2%±12.4	47% ▲

Optimal v Mariano Zabaleta: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.0 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Mariano Zabaleta serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Mariano wins	v Daniel	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	72%	71%	70.7%±10.2	62% ▲
Body	18%	69%	63%	68.7%±12.8	5% ▼
T	33%	76%	73%	75.0%±10.9	33%

Optimal v Daniel Evans: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Mariano wins	v Daniel	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	38%	63%	70%	59.9%±11.6	51% ▲
Body	18%	58%	66%	61.9%±14.1	5% ▼
T	44%	75%	65%	68.3%±12.1	44%

Optimal v Daniel Evans: +0.3±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +4.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Daniel Evans returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mariano	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	+1.7	−1.0	+5.0±2.8
FH down the line	24%	+1.7	+1.8	+0.3	+3.8±4.1
FH slice through the middle	14%	−4.2	+0.2	±0.0	−4.0±1.7
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−1.0	±0.0	+4.5±3.1
FH slice down the line	6%	−4.3	+1.8	±0.0	−2.5±2.2

Lean FH through the middle: +2.2±2.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (455 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mariano	Value
BH slice through the middle	43%	−4.2	+0.5	−0.6	−4.2±1.9
BH slice crosscourt	27%	+0.5	+1.6	±0.0	+2.2±1.8
BH through the middle	12%	+6.4	+0.9	−2.9	+4.4±2.8
BH slice down the line	7%	−8.4	+0.3	±0.0	−8.1±2.5
BH crosscourt	6%	+8.8	−0.6	−1.4	+6.8±3.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +7.6±3.2 per 100 returns v the current mix (580 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mariano	Value
FH through the middle	51%	−3.5	−0.4	±0.0	−3.9±2.7
FH down the line	32%	−1.8	+0.9	+1.4	+0.5±4.4
FH crosscourt	17%	−0.2	+3.4	−1.0	+2.2±3.5

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.6±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (103 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Mariano	Value
BH slice crosscourt	35%	−4.0	−2.1	±0.0	−6.2±1.6
BH slice through the middle	25%	−11.3	−1.2	±0.0	−12.5±1.6
BH through the middle	10%	−2.9	+0.5	±0.0	−2.3±2.5
FH through the middle	9%	−2.9	−0.5	±0.0	−3.4±2.3
FH inside-out	8%	+1.0	+1.1	+1.4	+3.4±3.5

Lean FH inside-out: +9.3±3.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (442 returns charted)

Mariano Zabaleta returning

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniel	Value
BH through the middle	67%	+6.4	−1.5	+1.5	+6.4±2.5
BH crosscourt	17%	+8.8	−1.0	+1.0	+8.8±2.9
BH down the line	10%	+4.2	−1.3	+3.0	+5.9±4.0
BH slice through the middle	6%	−4.2	−0.1	+0.1	−4.2±2.0

Lean BH through the middle: +0.3±1.0 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Daniel	Value
BH through the middle	48%	−2.9	+0.2	+0.5	−2.2±2.1
FH through the middle	40%	−2.9	−0.4	−0.2	−3.4±2.1
FH inside-out	12%	+1.0	+0.6	+0.4	+1.9±3.0

Lean BH through the middle: ±0.0±1.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (42 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Daniel Evans

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.6±2.8	+2.7	−0.1
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.5±2.9	+1.9	−1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.5±2.9	+1.9	−1.4
FH to their backhand · rally	+2.6±2.8	+2.7	−0.1

Mariano Zabaleta

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+1.4±2.2	+0.2	+1.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±3.0	+1.1	−0.8
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±3.2	−2.7	−2.2
BH to their backhand · rally	−6.0±2.5	−4.8	−1.3
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.4±3.8	−5.0	−1.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their forehand · rally	−6.4±3.8	−5.0	−1.4
BH to their backhand · rally	−6.0±2.5	−4.8	−1.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.9±3.2	−2.7	−2.2
FH to their backhand · rally	+0.3±3.0	+1.1	−0.8
BH to the middle · return	+1.4±2.2	+0.2	+1.2

Against Mariano Zabaleta-like opponents

Daniel Evans v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	62.1%	37.6%