Game plan

Hugo Gaston v Lukas Lacko

Every number combines what Hugo Gaston does well with what Lukas Lacko allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Hugo Gaston wins, best of 3 80%90%: 47%–96% · best of 5: 85%

Serve points won 66.2% / 59.7% Hugo / Lukas · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 80%serve 66.2% / 59.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Hugo Gaston's record against Lukas Lacko's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Head to head, per 100 shots

Career	Hugo	Lukas
Direction choice	−0.07 ±0.15 better than 39%	−0.05 ±0.12 better than 44%
Shot selection	−0.41 ±0.24 better than 16%	−0.25 ±0.29 better than 27%
Execution	−0.58 ±0.52 better than 42%	−0.04 ±1.05 better than 66%

Each player's career against an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for opponent strength, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Points left on the table is the gap to the best-value direction for the same stroke, so lower is better. Percentiles are within each player's own tour. A side is highlighted only when the gap is larger than the margin on the difference.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Hugo Gaston serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Lukas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	41%	69%	77%	74.2%±9.7	54% ▲
Body	16%	66%	59%	62.5%±15.3	3% ▼
T	43%	67%	73%	65.4%±11.3	43%

Optimal v Lukas Lacko: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +5.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Hugo wins	v Lukas	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	67%	72%	76%	75.4%±9.2	61% ▼
Body	7%	66%	53%	56.1%±17.1	0% ▼
T	26%	75%	80%	82.2%±9.3	39% ▲

Optimal v Lukas Lacko: +0.7±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +6.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Lukas Lacko serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Lukas wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	74%	68%	69.9%±10.0	56% ▲
Body	5%	63%	54%	53.4%±17.6	0% ▼
T	52%	71%	75%	70.7%±9.8	44% ▼

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.4±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +1.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Lukas wins	v Hugo	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	56%	67%	79%	73.6%±9.3	53% ▼
Body	10%	62%	60%	59.1%±16.2	0% ▼
T	34%	70%	73%	71.5%±10.9	47% ▲

Optimal v Hugo Gaston: +0.4±1.0 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Hugo Gaston returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lukas	Value
FH through the middle	43%	+4.3	+0.5	+1.5	+6.2±3.1
FH crosscourt	19%	+5.5	−4.2	−1.0	+0.3±4.2
FH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.5	−0.3	−5.0±2.0
FH down the line	16%	+1.7	−2.1	+0.2	−0.2±4.2
FH slice crosscourt	5%	−4.3	−0.1	±0.0	−4.4±1.4

Lean FH through the middle: +4.6±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (152 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lukas	Value
BH through the middle	39%	+6.4	−1.1	+1.8	+7.1±2.8
BH crosscourt	34%	+8.8	−3.4	−0.8	+4.6±3.2
BH slice through the middle	13%	−4.2	−1.4	+3.3	−2.3±2.4
BH down the line	9%	+4.2	−1.4	±0.0	+2.8±4.0
BH slice crosscourt	4%	+0.5	−1.4	−0.2	−1.0±1.9

Lean BH through the middle: +2.8±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (180 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lukas	Value
FH through the middle	44%	−3.5	+0.4	−2.0	−5.1±2.9
FH crosscourt	37%	−0.2	+0.1	+0.2	±0.0±3.7
FH down the line	13%	−1.8	−1.2	+0.5	−2.5±3.6
FH slice crosscourt	6%	−12.5	±0.0	±0.0	−12.5±1.3

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.3±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (84 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Lukas	Value
BH through the middle	55%	−2.9	−1.4	+0.7	−3.5±2.5
BH crosscourt	38%	+1.0	−0.8	+3.5	+3.8±3.0
BH down the line	8%	−0.2	−1.0	+1.8	+0.5±4.0

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.3±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (80 returns charted)

Lukas Lacko returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
FH through the middle	44%	+4.3	+0.4	−1.9	+2.8±3.1
FH crosscourt	29%	+5.5	−2.2	−1.0	+2.3±4.3
FH down the line	27%	+1.7	−2.9	−3.4	−4.6±4.2

Lean FH through the middle: +2.1±2.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (82 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH through the middle	44%	+6.4	−2.0	+2.1	+6.6±2.6
BH crosscourt	31%	+8.8	+0.6	−1.3	+8.1±3.4
BH slice through the middle	17%	−4.2	−0.4	+0.6	−4.0±2.2
BH slice crosscourt	7%	+0.5	+0.7	+1.5	+2.8±2.2

Lean BH crosscourt: +3.1±2.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (70 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Hugo	Value
BH crosscourt	65%	+1.0	−0.9	−0.5	−0.4±3.2
BH through the middle	35%	−2.9	+1.7	−0.1	−1.3±2.4

Lean BH crosscourt: +0.3±1.4 per 100 returns v the current mix (51 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Hugo Gaston

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · rally	+4.8±3.8	+2.5	+2.3
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.7±3.2	+2.7	+1.0
FH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	+1.1	−0.6
BH to the middle · rally	−0.2±2.4	−1.1	+0.9
FH to the middle · return	−0.7±2.8	+0.1	−0.8
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±3.0	−3.3	+1.2

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−2.1±3.0	−3.3	+1.2
FH to the middle · return	−0.7±2.8	+0.1	−0.8
BH to the middle · rally	−0.2±2.4	−1.1	+0.9
FH to the middle · rally	+0.5±2.6	+1.1	−0.6
FH to their backhand · rally	+3.7±3.2	+2.7	+1.0

Lukas Lacko

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to the middle · return	+1.6±2.5	−0.3	+2.0
BH to the middle · rally	+0.2±2.4	+0.7	−0.6
BH to their backhand · rally	+0.1±2.9	+0.8	−0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.6	−2.0	−0.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.3±3.2	−1.6	−0.7
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±3.4	−0.7	−2.4

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their forehand · serve +1	−4.3±4.1	−1.1	−3.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.9±3.7	−2.7	−1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	−3.2±3.4	−0.7	−2.4
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.3±3.2	−1.6	−0.7
FH to the middle · rally	−2.1±2.6	−2.0	−0.1

Against Lukas Lacko-like opponents

Hugo Gaston v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	60.8%	37.9%