RallyIQ

Game plan

Qiang Wang v Indy De Vroome

Every number combines what Qiang Wang does well with what Indy De Vroome allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Qiang Wang wins, best of 3 32%90%: 6%–73% · best of 5: 28%
Serve points won 53.1% / 56.7% Qiang / Indy · tour 56.3%
Strengths only, no similarity priors 32%serve 53.1% / 56.7%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Qiang Wang's record against Indy De Vroome's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Qiang Wang serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowQiang winsv IndyMatchupOptimal
Wide36%61%67%61.9%±10.551% ▲
Body24%59%58%59.8%±11.518% ▼
T40%65%66%62.5%±14.431% ▼

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.2±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +0.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowQiang winsv IndyMatchupOptimal
Wide29%60%59%52.8%±14.144% ▲
Body20%50%49%43.0%±12.14% ▼
T52%52%63%50.9%±12.552%

Optimal v Indy De Vroome: +0.9±1.3 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving wide every time would read +2.9 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Indy De Vroome serving

Deuce court

1st serveNowIndy winsv QiangMatchupOptimal
Wide38%71%61%66.5%±11.237%
Body45%59%55%56.3%±12.030% ▼
T17%70%71%73.3%±12.633% ▲

Optimal v Qiang Wang: +0.9±1.2 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +10.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serveNowIndy winsv QiangMatchupOptimal
Wide6%67%64%65.1%±14.216% ▲
Body32%61%63%67.9%±12.017% ▼
T61%71%69%75.7%±9.067% ▲

Optimal v Qiang Wang: +0.5±1.1 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +3.2 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Qiang Wang returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv IndyValue
FH through the middle56%+4.2+2.6−2.4+4.3±3.0
FH down the line25%+1.5+2.7+1.3+5.5±4.3
FH crosscourt18%+5.3−0.1−1.2+4.0±4.1

Lean FH down the line: +0.9±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (208 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

1st serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv IndyValue
BH crosscourt41%+7.7+1.0−3.3+5.4±3.4
BH through the middle39%+6.0−0.9+0.2+5.4±2.9
BH down the line9%+2.2−1.3−3.1−2.3±3.7
BH slice crosscourt6%−4.2+0.3±0.0−3.8±1.6
BH slice through the middle6%−6.2±0.0±0.0−6.2±1.3

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.8±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (161 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

ReturnNowTourOwnv IndyValue
BH crosscourt45%+1.5+0.6+0.6+2.6±3.2
BH through the middle38%−2.6+1.6−2.6−3.6±2.6
BH down the line16%−0.5+1.2−1.2−0.6±4.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +2.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (104 returns charted)

Indy De Vroome returning

1st serve to the forehand

ReturnNowTourOwnv QiangValue
FH through the middle58%+4.2+0.4+0.1+4.7±3.0
FH crosscourt29%+5.3−0.4+4.1+9.0±4.3
FH down the line7%+1.5−0.4+1.6+2.7±4.0
FH slice through the middle6%−6.7+0.9−0.3−6.1±1.9

Lean FH crosscourt: +3.9±3.5 per 100 returns v the current mix (98 returns charted)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Qiang Wang

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to the middle · return+0.1±2.7+3.4−3.3
FH to their forehand · rally−1.0±3.4+0.3−1.2
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.4±4.2+0.9−2.3

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1−1.4±4.2+0.9−2.3
FH to their forehand · rally−1.0±3.4+0.3−1.2
FH to the middle · return+0.1±2.7+3.4−3.3

Indy De Vroome

Favour

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their backhand · rally+3.6±3.9+1.0+2.6
FH to the middle · return+0.1±2.8±0.0+0.1
BH to the middle · rally−0.1±2.4−0.5+0.5
BH to the middle · return−0.3±2.6−0.5+0.1
BH to their forehand · rally−1.8±4.4−3.0+1.2
BH to their backhand · rally−2.2±3.1−4.5+2.3

Avoid

ShotEdgeOwnTheirs
FH to their forehand · rally−2.2±3.4−2.3+0.2
BH to their backhand · rally−2.2±3.1−4.5+2.3
BH to their forehand · rally−1.8±4.4−3.0+1.2
BH to the middle · return−0.3±2.6−0.5+0.1
BH to the middle · rally−0.1±2.4−0.5+0.5

Against Indy De Vroome-like opponents

Qiang Wang vMatchesServe pts wonReturn pts won
All charted opponents–50.4%40.5%