Game plan

Reilly Opelka v Michael Mmoh

Every number combines what Reilly Opelka does well with what Michael Mmoh allows, each measured against the tour average and shrunk toward it when the sample is thin. Flip perspective

Forecast

Reilly Opelka wins, best of 3 59%90%: 30%–84% · best of 5: 61%

Serve points won 68.9% / 67.0% Reilly / Michael · tour 63.4%

Strengths only, no similarity priors 59%serve 68.9% / 67.0%

Each player's serve and return strength is fitted against every opponent they were charted against, so a record built on weak opponents counts for less. At least one of them is no longer active or has too little charted in the last three seasons, so both are compared on their careers. The result is then nudged by Reilly Opelka's record against Michael Mmoh's tactical lookalikes and in their charted head-to-heads. A game-by-game Markov chain turns point odds into match odds; the 90% range covers the uncertainty in the two strengths, not the nudges. Charted matches lean toward big events, so treat this as a scouting estimate, not a betting line.

Serve plan

The share of points the server wins when a first serve lands in that direction (hover a rate for its 90% interval; ± is the 90% margin). "Matchup" combines the server's rate with how this returner handles that serve. "Optimal" is the mix that wins most against this returner once they start reading a habit, at the response measured across the tour, and only within the range servers' habits actually vary. The gain over the current mix is how exploitable that mix is.

Reilly Opelka serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Reilly wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	50%	77%	79%	82.4%±5.9	63% ▲
Body	9%	62%	65%	63.8%±13.4	0% ▼
T	41%	80%	75%	80.7%±6.9	37% ▼

Optimal v Michael Mmoh: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.4 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Reilly wins	v Michael	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	49%	82%	76%	84.1%±6.1	43% ▼
Body	7%	61%	65%	62.5%±14.5	0% ▼
T	44%	77%	77%	81.6%±6.3	57% ▲

Optimal v Michael Mmoh: +1.0±0.7 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.7 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Michael Mmoh serving

Deuce court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Reilly	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	74%	80%	81.4%±6.5	43%
Body	20%	65%	70%	71.5%±10.2	7% ▼
T	37%	71%	83%	80.5%±7.3	50% ▲

Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +1.0±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix. Serving wide every time would read +2.3 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Ad court

1st serve	Now	Michael wins	v Reilly	Matchup	Optimal
Wide	43%	69%	81%	78.1%±7.6	43%
Body	18%	62%	72%	70.7%±10.6	5% ▼
T	39%	72%	80%	80.2%±7.1	52% ▲

Optimal v Reilly Opelka: +0.6±0.9 per 100 first serves (faults included) over the current mix, inside the 90% margin. Serving T every time would read +2.6 per 100 first serves in before the returner adjusts.

Return plan

Value of each return, in points per 100 returns against an average return of the same serve (direction, court, surface): the tour's result with that return, the returner's own edge with it, and what this server gives up when it comes back to that side. Returns with no charted direction are left out, so values compare with each other rather than with zero. Depth isn't a choice here: missed returns have no depth. Serve quality isn't charted, so a block through the middle partly reflects the serve that forced it.

Reilly Opelka returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	41%	+4.3	−3.8	+0.6	+1.1±2.7
FH down the line	21%	+1.7	−0.8	−4.0	−3.1±4.0
FH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	−2.6	−1.2	−8.0±1.9
FH crosscourt	13%	+5.5	−1.9	−0.3	+3.2±3.9
FH slice down the line	4%	−4.3	+1.2	±0.0	−3.0±2.2

Lean FH crosscourt: +4.5±3.7 per 100 returns v the current mix (809 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH through the middle	57%	+6.4	−2.2	−1.8	+2.4±2.4
BH crosscourt	24%	+8.8	−2.2	+1.4	+8.0±3.2
BH slice through the middle	7%	−4.2	−1.9	−0.4	−6.5±2.3
BH down the line	7%	+4.2	+2.8	−1.4	+5.6±4.4
BH slice crosscourt	3%	+0.5	−1.7	−1.7	−2.9±2.5

Lean BH crosscourt: +5.1±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (713 returns charted)

2nd serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
FH through the middle	43%	−3.5	−4.5	+0.2	−7.8±2.8
FH down the line	31%	−1.8	−4.5	−4.4	−10.7±4.6
FH crosscourt	15%	−0.2	−5.8	−1.7	−7.7±4.0
FH slice through the middle	6%	−12.7	+0.1	±0.0	−12.6±1.4
BH through the middle	3%	+0.1	−0.5	−0.1	−0.4±1.6

Lean FH crosscourt: +1.1±3.9 per 100 returns v the current mix (219 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Michael	Value
BH through the middle	53%	−2.9	−2.9	−0.1	−5.9±2.1
BH crosscourt	34%	+1.0	−3.5	−0.5	−3.0±2.9
BH down the line	9%	−0.2	−1.5	−2.0	−3.7±4.3
FH through the middle	2%	−2.9	+0.3	+0.2	−2.4±2.1
FH inside-out	2%	+1.0	+0.7	−4.4	−2.7±3.1

Lean BH crosscourt: +1.6±2.3 per 100 returns v the current mix (482 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Michael Mmoh returning

1st serve to the forehand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
FH slice through the middle	33%	−4.2	−1.1	−0.3	−5.6±2.1
FH through the middle	27%	+4.3	+2.5	+1.2	+7.9±2.5
FH slice down the line	19%	−4.3	−1.2	−1.9	−7.3±3.0
FH down the line	12%	+1.7	−2.7	+4.4	+3.5±3.9
FH crosscourt	10%	+5.5	+0.5	+1.7	+7.7±3.6

Lean FH through the middle: +7.9±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (83 returns charted)

1st serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
BH through the middle	49%	+6.4	+0.3	+0.8	+7.4±2.4
BH crosscourt	23%	+8.8	−0.3	+0.3	+8.8±3.3
BH slice through the middle	16%	−4.2	−1.8	−1.5	−7.6±2.0
BH slice crosscourt	12%	+0.5	−0.3	−1.8	−1.6±2.6

Lean BH crosscourt: +4.5±2.8 per 100 returns v the current mix (69 returns charted)

2nd serve to the backhand

Return	Now	Tour	Own	v Reilly	Value
BH crosscourt	54%	+1.0	−4.7	−2.1	−5.8±3.0
BH through the middle	33%	−2.9	+0.9	−1.1	−3.0±1.9
BH down the line	13%	−0.2	−1.2	−0.1	−1.5±4.1

Lean BH through the middle: +1.3±2.1 per 100 returns v the current mix (46 returns charted, inside the 90% margin)

Rally plan

Edge, in points per 100 shots: the hitter's skill with the shot (own) plus how much the receiver usually gives up against it (theirs), both measured against the tour average.

Reilly Opelka

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−1.4±3.2	−2.6	+1.1
FH to their backhand · rally	−2.3±2.9	−4.5	+2.2
FH to the middle · rally	−3.6±2.3	−5.0	+1.4
BH to the middle · return	−3.7±2.2	−2.9	−0.8
FH to the middle · return	−3.8±2.4	−4.7	+0.9
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.1±3.0	−4.6	+0.5

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	−5.2±2.6	−5.5	+0.3
FH to their forehand · rally	−4.1±3.0	−4.6	+0.5
FH to the middle · return	−3.8±2.4	−4.7	+0.9
BH to the middle · return	−3.7±2.2	−2.9	−0.8
FH to the middle · rally	−3.6±2.3	−5.0	+1.4

Michael Mmoh

Favour

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · rally	+2.4±2.4	+2.0	+0.4
FH to the middle · rally	+2.2±2.2	+1.1	+1.1
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±3.0	+1.2	+0.9
BH to the middle · return	−0.7±2.2	+0.3	−1.0
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.6±3.1	−0.3	−1.3
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.4±3.3	−2.2	−1.3

Avoid

Shot	Edge	Own	Theirs
BH to their backhand · return	−6.0±3.1	−4.1	−1.9
FH to their backhand · serve +1	−3.4±3.3	−2.2	−1.3
FH to their backhand · rally	−1.6±3.1	−0.3	−1.3
BH to the middle · return	−0.7±2.2	+0.3	−1.0
FH to their forehand · rally	+2.1±3.0	+1.2	+0.9

Against Michael Mmoh-like opponents

Reilly Opelka v	Matches	Serve pts won	Return pts won
All charted opponents	–	70.0%	27.5%