RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 3 charted matches · 2023–2024

Anastasia Tikhonova

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 0% ▼ 78% / 66%
Body 16% 50% ▲ 61% / 57%
T 46% 50% 78% / 68%

90 normal · 2 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 54% 78% ▲ 65% / 66%
Body 7% 0% 58% / 56%
T 39% 22% ▼ 67% / 64%

74 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide38% 78.8%±8.3 n=35
Body16% 71.0%±11.1 n=15
T46% 68.6%±9.0 n=42

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.17).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide57% 57.3%±9.3 n=47
Body6% 63.8%±13.4 n=5
T37% 61.9%±10.2 n=31

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.30).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 44% +0.1±13.1
1stAd courtT 9 32% −3.1±12.3
1stAd courtWide 32 44% +9.6±10.4
1stDeuce courtBody 30 35% −8.0±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 10 29% −3.0±11.8
1stDeuce courtWide 21 42% +7.6±11.4
2ndAd courtBody 20 59% +4.0±11.4
2ndAd courtT 6 57% +1.9±13.6
2ndAd courtWide 13 54% +0.1±12.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 19 58% +3.4±11.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 12 62% +8.4±12.3

Charted matches