RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2021–2026

Ann Li

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.5% ±4.1 raw 56.0% · tour 56.3% · 357 points
Return points won 44.7% ±4.2 raw 43.1% · tour 43.7% · 339 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Ann Li goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 92 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 30% 38.6%±11.6 47.6%
BH slice through the middle 20% 33.9%±12.6 34.4%
BH slice crosscourt 20% 42.3%±13.2 40.4%
BH through the middle 18% 42.3%±13.4 43.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 91 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 34% 46.2%±11.5 52.7%
FH through the middle 24% 43.2%±12.6 45.8%
FH down the line 19% 52.6%±13.5 52.2%
BH crosscourt 12% 42.5%±14.6 50.9%
BH through the middle 11% 37.5%±14.5 46.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 51% 43.6%±10.1 46.7%
FH down the line 19% 43.2%±13.4 44.9%
FH through the middle 17% 40.8%±13.7 41.3%
FH slice through the middle 13% 31.8%±13.8 29.2%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 52 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 27% 41.9%±13.9 46.2%
FH crosscourt 27% 54.3%±14.1 52.3%
FH through the middle 21% 46.2%±14.7 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +3 How much less varied Ann Li's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 50 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 50% 69% / 66%
Body 13% 21% ▲ 48% / 57%
T 35% 29% 65% / 68%

169 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 31% 36% 65% / 66%
Body 10% 6% 60% / 56%
T 59% 58% 70% / 64%

136 normal · 36 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide52% 59.1%±7.2 n=95
Body14% 50.3%±11.1 n=25
T34% 56.1%±8.5 n=63

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.31).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide32% 54.7%±8.9 n=55
Body9% 53.8%±12.1 n=16
T59% 57.3%±7.1 n=101

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.80).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −7.3±11.5 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (108 repeats, 235 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 24 41% −2.8±11.0
1stAd courtT 43 37% +1.0±9.3
1stAd courtWide 43 33% −1.1±9.1
1stDeuce courtBody 37 41% −1.1±9.9
1stDeuce courtT 28 30% −1.7±9.9
1stDeuce courtWide 61 33% −0.8±8.1
2ndAd courtBody 15 54% −0.6±12.2
2ndAd courtT 25 57% +2.3±11.0
2ndAd courtWide 12 62% +8.5±12.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 19 52% −2.7±11.7
2ndDeuce courtT 8 57% +1.4±13.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 61% +7.6±10.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Ann Li's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 22.5% · won 49% · +4.0±11.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Ann Li wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 41% · −0.9±12.9 vs own baseline · −7.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katie Volynets (3/8)
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.8% · won 41% · −1.5±11.7 vs own baseline · −9.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katie Volynets (4/11)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−0.9124

Most exposed to

Charted matches