RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 2 charted matches · 2020–2022

Antoine Escoffier

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 25% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 15% 25% ▲ 55% / 63%
T 39% 50% ▲ 77% / 75%

67 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 38% ▼ 76% / 73%
Body 16% 38% ▲ 66% / 63%
T 36% 25% ▼ 77% / 72%

55 normal · 8 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide45% 71.5%±9.4 n=32
Body15% 57.7%±12.7 n=11
T39% 62.6%±10.5 n=28

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.05).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide46% 72.0%±9.6 n=29
Body19% 67.5%±11.9 n=12
T35% 73.9%±10.0 n=22

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.47).

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 4 36% −1.4±13.5
1stAd courtT 14 26% −2.1±10.9
1stAd courtWide 15 27% −0.2±10.9
1stDeuce courtBody 6 36% −0.6±13.2
1stDeuce courtT 27 18% −6.6±8.5
1stDeuce courtWide 12 24% −3.0±10.9
2ndAd courtBody 9 48% −1.1±13.2
2ndAd courtT 9 51% +1.4±13.2
2ndAd courtWide 12 54% +5.2±12.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 9 45% −3.6±13.1
2ndDeuce courtT 11 46% −3.6±12.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 5 50% +1.7±13.9

Charted matches