RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2019–2019

Brayden Schnur

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.7% ±3.7 raw 66.3% · tour 63.4% · 501 points
Return points won 34.2% ±3.7 raw 27.6% · tour 36.6% · 460 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Brayden Schnur goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 31% 41.5%±11.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 35.2%±12.6 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 14% 43.8%±14.4 35.1%
BH down the line 14% 47.7%±14.5 46.4%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 40.3%±14.5 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 57 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 42% 46.2%±12.4 46.6%
FH down the line 26% 39.9%±13.6 44.7%
FH through the middle 21% 44.7%±14.5 41.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 55 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 46.1%±13.7 48.0%
BH down the line 24% 40.3%±14.0 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 67% ▲ 73% / 73%
Body 6% 0% 67% / 63%
T 41% 33% 75% / 75%

251 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 61% ▲ 77% / 73%
Body 8% 14% 58% / 63%
T 40% 25% ▼ 73% / 72%

213 normal · 28 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide54% 64.6%±6.0 n=140 67% ▲
Body6% 63.7%±11.8 n=15 0% ▼
T40% 64.9%±6.8 n=105 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.97).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 67.1%±6.2 n=127 48% ▼
Body9% 61.9%±11.2 n=21 0% ▼
T39% 71.8%±6.7 n=93 52% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.20).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.48 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +6.1±7.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (180 repeats, 311 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 14 30% −7.2±11.3
1stAd courtT 61 22% −5.6±7.2
1stAd courtWide 57 23% −4.0±7.4
1stDeuce courtBody 9 33% −3.3±12.4
1stDeuce courtT 83 20% −5.1±6.2
1stDeuce courtWide 81 23% −4.5±6.5
2ndAd courtBody 20 48% −1.8±11.6
2ndAd courtT 19 42% −6.9±11.6
2ndAd courtWide 43 43% −5.2±9.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 25 49% −0.5±11.1
2ndDeuce courtT 30 47% −3.2±10.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 18 51% +2.8±11.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Brayden Schnur's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 11.2% · won 64% · −15.7±9.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. Not enough data

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.8123

Most exposed to

Charted matches