RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 2 charted matches · 2021–2021

Dalibor Svrcina

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 33% ▼ 73% / 73%
Body 22% 33% ▲ 66% / 63%
T 32% 33% 73% / 75%

72 normal · 3 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 40% 54% ▲ 78% / 73%
Body 22% 15% 54% / 63%
T 38% 31% 68% / 72%

55 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide45% 59.3%±10.1 n=34
Body23% 64.8%±11.5 n=17
T32% 56.7%±11.1 n=24

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.32).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide43% 68.0%±10.0 n=29
Body21% 48.3%±12.4 n=14
T37% 57.4%±11.0 n=25

Off equilibrium (p = 0.005): serve wide more. Gap 8.0 points per 100 first serves.

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 13 35% −1.9±12.0
1stAd courtT 16 20% −7.6±9.8
1stAd courtWide 14 32% +5.0±11.6
1stDeuce courtBody 12 33% −3.3±12.0
1stDeuce courtT 20 25% ±0.0±10.1
1stDeuce courtWide 17 28% +0.8±10.8
2ndAd courtBody 13 48% −1.0±12.5
2ndAd courtT 4 55% +6.0±14.0
2ndAd courtWide 12 51% +2.8±12.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 9 45% −3.6±13.1
2ndDeuce courtT 12 50% +0.1±12.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 5 53% +4.6±13.9

Charted matches