WTA · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2018–2023
Evgeniya Rodina
Shot expected value
The share of points Evgeniya Rodina goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 50% to the average player · 115 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 37% | 58.9%±10.3 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 29% | 56.9%±11.2 | 45.8% |
| BH through the middle | 14% | 45.1%±13.6 | 46.2% |
| BH crosscourt | 10% | 47.4%±14.5 | 50.9% |
| BH down the line | 10% | 46.9%±14.5 | 50.0% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 43% to the average player · 105 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 70% | 53.6%±8.5 | 46.7% |
| FH through the middle | 21% | 41.1%±12.5 | 41.3% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 45% to the average player · 103 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 51% | 44.5%±9.6 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 41% | 55.9%±10.4 | 43.3% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 76 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 66% | 49.1%±9.8 | 47.0% |
| FH through the middle | 21% | 39.7%±13.4 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 13% | 54.3%±15.0 | 46.4% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 75% ▲ | 59% / 66% |
| Body | 54% | 25% ▼ | 60% / 57% |
| T | 8% | 0% ▼ | 67% / 68% |
121 normal · 4 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 7% | 12% | 64% / 66% |
| Body | 46% | 48% | 52% / 56% |
| T | 47% | 40% | 59% / 64% |
96 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 49.5%±9.3 n=49 |
| Body | 53% | 53.4%±8.4 n=66 |
| T | 8% | 49.3%±13.0 n=10 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.72).
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 8% | 49.3%±13.0 n=10 |
| Body | 46% | 52.1%±8.9 n=56 |
| T | 45% | 55.4%±8.9 n=55 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.52).
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.3±10.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (109 repeats, 129 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 9 | 41% | −2.4±13.0 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 27 | 34% | −1.0±10.4 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 27 | 34% | −0.5±10.3 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 11 | 43% | +0.8±12.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 19 | 38% | +5.9±11.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 27 | 32% | −2.1±10.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 27 | 54% | −1.5±10.9 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 9 | 47% | −7.6±13.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 2 | 53% | −0.2±14.5 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 35 | 56% | +1.4±10.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 14 | 59% | +2.6±12.2 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 5 | 55% | +0.9±13.8 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Evgeniya Rodina's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 16.9% · won 49% · −2.6±11.5 vs own baseline
- Body serve (ad court) → BH through the middle used 20.0% · won 49% · −2.5±10.9 vs own baseline
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 6.2% · won 61% · +5.6±11.3 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 5.9% · won 60% · +4.8±11.4 vs own baseline
- BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 57% · +2.2±11.0 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 6.5% · won 56% · +0.6±11.3 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 12.6% · won 54% · −1.0±9.2 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Evgeniya Rodina wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 56% · +4.1±12.8 vs own baseline · +14.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katie Volynets (4/9)
- BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 55% · +3.0±13.0 vs own baseline · +15.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alize Cornet (5/8)
- FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.1% · won 55% · +2.5±12.4 vs own baseline · +11.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katie Volynets (8/15)
- BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 49% · −3.2±12.9 vs own baseline · −10.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Katie Volynets (4/9)
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 48% · −4.5±13.1 vs own baseline · −8.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Alize Cornet (4/9)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.6% · won 48% · −3.5±10.0 vs own baseline · −1.9 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.8 | 166 |
Most exposed to
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.2 | 160 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Linda Fruhvirtova, Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Linda Klimovicova, Nadia Podoroska