RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2021–2026

Francesca Jones

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.1% ±3.9 raw 58.7% · tour 56.3% · 341 points
Return points won 42.4% ±4.0 raw 40.1% · tour 43.7% · 292 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Francesca Jones goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 96 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 35% 58.4%±11.0 52.7%
FH down the line 22% 47.4%±12.8 52.2%
FH through the middle 21% 40.4%±12.8 45.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 88 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 22% 40.2%±12.9 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 19% 45.6%±13.5 34.4%
BH crosscourt 19% 52.8%±13.5 47.6%
BH down the line 11% 47.8%±15.0 46.8%
FH inside-in 11% 50.4%±15.0 55.6%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 46 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 52% 41.7%±12.2 46.7%
FH through the middle 28% 49.3%±14.3 41.3%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 57% ▲ 63% / 66%
Body 17% 14% 52% / 57%
T 37% 29% ▼ 61% / 68%

169 normal · 7 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 44% 23% ▼ 71% / 66%
Body 13% 23% ▲ 62% / 56%
T 43% 54% ▲ 61% / 64%

139 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide47% 57.4%±7.7 n=83
Body16% 47.8%±10.7 n=29
T36% 55.3%±8.4 n=64

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.25).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide41% 71.9%±7.5 n=67
Body15% 56.6%±11.1 n=24
T45% 58.1%±8.0 n=74

Off equilibrium (p = 0.010): serve wide more. Gap 8.4 points per 100 first serves.

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 18 46% +2.3±11.8
1stAd courtT 41 26% −9.3±8.6
1stAd courtWide 31 38% +3.8±10.2
1stDeuce courtBody 25 41% −1.2±10.9
1stDeuce courtT 27 26% −6.4±9.5
1stDeuce courtWide 39 34% −0.4±9.4
2ndAd courtBody 34 52% −2.7±10.3
2ndAd courtT 2 55% −0.3±14.5
2ndAd courtWide 14 57% +3.4±12.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 30 52% −2.2±10.6
2ndDeuce courtT 17 63% +7.4±11.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 13 47% −7.0±12.5

Charted matches