RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2011–2015

Jarmila Gajdosova

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 57.9% ±4.0 raw 54.8% · tour 56.3% · 354 points
Return points won 42.4% ±4.0 raw 38.9% · tour 43.7% · 373 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Jarmila Gajdosova goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 105 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 42% 43.7%±10.2 44.9%
FH crosscourt 32% 41.4%±11.0 46.7%
FH through the middle 21% 34.0%±12.0 41.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 38% 53.1%±11.6 52.7%
FH down the line 33% 46.6%±12.1 52.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 77 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 38% 48.0%±11.7 47.6%
BH down the line 35% 39.0%±11.7 46.8%
BH through the middle 27% 50.4%±12.8 43.3%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 54 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 43% 38.6%±12.2 43.0%
BH crosscourt 33% 43.6%±13.2 47.8%
BH down the line 24% 40.1%±14.0 46.2%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 48% 44% 68% / 66%
Body 15% 11% 47% / 57%
T 37% 44% 67% / 68%

161 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 34% 38% 66% / 66%
Body 15% 15% 56% / 56%
T 50% 46% 64% / 64%

137 normal · 26 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide48% 59.6%±7.6 n=82
Body15% 40.5%±10.9 n=25
T37% 53.9%±8.5 n=63

Off equilibrium (p = 0.005): serve wide more. Gap 4.9 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide35% 55.9%±8.8 n=57
Body15% 53.3%±11.1 n=25
T50% 54.2%±7.8 n=81

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.91).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.6±4.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (100 repeats, 223 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 40 35% −9.4±9.3
1stAd courtT 44 25% −10.3±8.3
1stAd courtWide 30 32% −2.2±9.9
1stDeuce courtBody 28 39% −3.3±10.5
1stDeuce courtT 52 30% −2.1±8.3
1stDeuce courtWide 41 37% +2.9±9.4
2ndAd courtBody 31 60% +4.8±10.3
2ndAd courtT 18 49% −6.1±11.9
2ndAd courtWide 15 49% −4.5±12.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 34 57% +2.3±10.2
2ndDeuce courtT 13 58% +1.7±12.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 58% +3.9±11.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Jarmila Gajdosova's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 18.4% · won 46% · +1.8±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jarmila Gajdosova wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 3.0% · won 44% · +1.1±11.9 vs own baseline · −2.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Caroline Wozniacki (9/16)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 2.2% · won 41% · −2.2±12.7 vs own baseline · −10.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Caroline Wozniacki (6/13)

Charted matches