ATP · Right-handed · 2 charted matches · 1991–1992
Jordi Arrese
Shot expected value
The share of points Jordi Arrese goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 137 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 45% | 47.1%±9.1 | 48.0% |
| FH inside-out | 21% | 48.0%±11.7 | 52.6% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 9% | 43.7%±14.2 | 42.1% |
| BH through the middle | 9% | 39.9%±14.2 | 43.8% |
| BH down the line | 8% | 46.1%±14.7 | 46.5% |
| FH inside-in | 7% | 59.5%±14.7 | 54.3% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 133 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH inside-out | 33% | 55.3%±10.2 | 51.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 30% | 59.2%±10.4 | 47.6% |
| FH inside-in | 13% | 43.1%±13.4 | 54.7% |
| BH through the middle | 11% | 40.4%±13.8 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 8% | 49.3%±14.8 | 46.4% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 95 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 52% | 48.4%±9.9 | 46.9% |
| FH down the line | 40% | 43.0%±10.7 | 44.8% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 71 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 51% | 44.6%±10.9 | 44.7% |
| FH crosscourt | 37% | 57.2%±12.0 | 46.6% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 8% | 0% | 73% / 73% |
| Body | 53% | 40% ▼ | 70% / 63% |
| T | 39% | 60% ▲ | 73% / 75% |
114 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 72% | 86% ▲ | 64% / 73% |
| Body | 20% | 14% | 57% / 63% |
| T | 8% | 0% ▼ | 75% / 72% |
95 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 8% | 65.4%±12.5 n=9 |
| Body | 52% | 69.7%±7.9 n=62 |
| T | 40% | 60.7%±9.1 n=48 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 73% | 57.1%±7.8 n=80 |
| Body | 19% | 60.9%±11.2 n=21 |
| T | 7% | 65.4%±12.7 n=8 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.22).
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.4±10.3 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (116 repeats, 108 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 16 | 37% | +0.2±11.7 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 31 | 27% | −1.1±9.3 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 12 | 27% | −0.6±11.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 15 | 31% | −5.6±11.4 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 18 | 22% | −3.2±9.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 22 | 25% | −1.9±9.9 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 18 | 45% | −3.9±11.8 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 9 | 51% | +1.4±13.2 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 25 | 54% | +5.3±11.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 37 | 58% | +8.8±9.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 12 | 55% | +4.8±12.6 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 12 | 53% | +5.3±12.7 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Jordi Arrese's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 21.4% · won 66% · −1.8±10.8 vs own baseline
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH inside-out → FH inside-out used 9.0% · won 57% · +4.6±11.2 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.8% · won 55% · +2.5±11.0 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.9% · won 54% · +2.0±11.6 vs own baseline
- FH down the line → FH inside-out used 8.3% · won 51% · −1.0±11.5 vs own baseline
- FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 10.5% · won 51% · −1.1±10.8 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Jordi Arrese wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH inside-out → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 2.2% · won 61% · +7.6±12.0 vs own baseline · +18.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marc Rosset (10/15)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.4% · won 58% · +5.0±11.9 vs own baseline · +14.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bjorn Borg (8/15), Marc Rosset (6/7)
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.8% · won 53% · ±0.0±12.7 vs own baseline · +4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bjorn Borg (5/12)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 2.9% · won 52% · −0.6±11.4 vs own baseline · +5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bjorn Borg (6/13), Marc Rosset (8/14)
- FH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH inside-out used 2.5% · won 50% · −2.4±11.9 vs own baseline · −4.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Marc Rosset (10/18)
- FH down the line → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 48% · −4.5±11.6 vs own baseline · −4.9 vs tour on the same sequence
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| BH to their backhand · rally | +2.3 | 124 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | +0.8 | 256 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.4 | 184 |
Most exposed to
| BH to their backhand · rally | −1.1 | 157 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +1.5 | 159 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Richard Gasquet, Nishesh Basavareddy, Arthur Cazaux, Jaume Munar, Daniel Evans