RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2022–2023

Julia Grabher

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 58.2% ±3.8 raw 57.7% · tour 56.3% · 452 points
Return points won 41.9% ±3.8 raw 38.8% · tour 43.7% · 441 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Julia Grabher goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 101 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH inside-in 21% 58.8%±12.6 55.6%
BH down the line 19% 29.1%±12.0 46.8%
FH inside-out 16% 59.7%±13.4 52.5%
BH through the middle 14% 40.2%±13.8 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 13% 29.9%±13.1 34.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 84 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 64.5%±10.1 46.7%
FH through the middle 30% 42.8%±12.1 41.3%
FH down the line 21% 42.0%±13.2 44.9%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 79 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 56.8%±11.3 52.7%
FH down the line 38% 62.9%±11.2 52.2%
FH through the middle 13% 47.2%±15.0 45.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 63 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 22% 31.3%±13.1 33.2%
BH through the middle 19% 48.8%±14.5 43.0%
BH down the line 16% 40.8%±14.8 46.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +13 How much less varied Julia Grabher's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 51 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 31% 8% ▼ 65% / 66%
Body 37% 15% ▼ 66% / 57%
T 32% 77% ▲ 64% / 68%

225 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 49% 55% 64% / 66%
Body 16% 16% 59% / 56%
T 35% 29% 65% / 64%

176 normal · 38 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide30% 57.2%±8.1 n=71 45% ▲
Body36% 63.7%±7.3 n=86 22% ▼
T34% 55.2%±7.8 n=81 33% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.26).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide50% 58.7%±6.9 n=107 59% ▲
Body16% 52.6%±10.2 n=35 1% ▼
T34% 56.1%±8.1 n=72 40% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.52).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.38 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.7±8.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (154 repeats, 284 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 33 37% −7.1±10.0
1stAd courtT 40 34% −1.7±9.3
1stAd courtWide 76 31% −3.9±7.4
1stDeuce courtBody 36 48% +5.5±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 65 32% +0.1±7.9
1stDeuce courtWide 62 33% −1.2±8.1
2ndAd courtBody 25 55% +0.4±11.0
2ndAd courtT 23 54% −1.2±11.3
2ndAd courtWide 11 51% −2.2±12.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 24 60% +5.4±11.0
2ndDeuce courtT 10 55% −1.5±13.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 36 46% −8.1±10.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Julia Grabher's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 10.2% · won 65% · −2.2±11.1 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 27.3% · won 72% · +7.9±9.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 16.5% · won 64% · +0.5±11.4 vs own baseline

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally+2.7153
FH to their forehand · rally+2.1142

Most exposed to

Charted matches