RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2022–2025

Leandro Riedi

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.5% ±3.9 raw 64.3% · tour 63.4% · 412 points
Return points won 31.6% ±3.8 raw 24.3% · tour 36.6% · 367 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Leandro Riedi goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 86 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 59% 51.4%±9.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 27% 41.3%±12.4 43.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 28% 57.9%±12.5 51.5%
FH through the middle 19% 41.1%±13.7 47.0%
FH crosscourt 19% 61.5%±13.5 52.7%
BH through the middle 13% 34.5%±14.3 46.8%

Serve +1: deep return to your middle

position worth 47% to the average player · 58 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 31% 55.9%±13.2 51.2%
FH down the line 22% 50.3%±14.3 47.9%
FH through the middle 22% 38.7%±13.9 43.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 52 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 50% 55.0%±12.1 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 46.6%±13.9 41.5%
FH down the line 21% 32.1%±13.8 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 37% 40% 71% / 73%
Body 20% 0% ▼ 58% / 63%
T 43% 60% ▲ 69% / 75%

210 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 52% 76% / 73%
Body 15% 24% ▲ 62% / 63%
T 34% 24% ▼ 75% / 72%

172 normal · 25 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide37% 64.4%±7.5 n=80 50% ▲
Body19% 55.2%±9.7 n=41 6% ▼
T44% 60.0%±7.2 n=94 44%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.28).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide52% 67.2%±6.7 n=102
Body16% 62.3%±10.2 n=31
T32% 74.4%±7.4 n=64

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).

Exploitability 0.87 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.5±11.6 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (141 repeats, 261 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 10 35% −1.7±12.4
1stAd courtT 53 21% −7.1±7.4
1stAd courtWide 38 18% −9.3±7.6
1stDeuce courtBody 26 29% −8.1±9.9
1stDeuce courtT 53 17% −7.6±6.9
1stDeuce courtWide 49 17% −10.5±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 41 45% −4.6±9.7
2ndAd courtT 13 48% −0.9±12.5
2ndAd courtWide 18 47% −1.5±11.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 44 46% −3.5±9.5
2ndDeuce courtT 15 44% −5.5±12.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 7 42% −6.4±13.3

Charted matches