RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 1989–1997

Magnus Gustafsson

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.1% ±3.6 raw 58.3% · tour 63.4% · 535 points
Return points won 36.0% ±3.6 raw 33.4% · tour 36.6% · 533 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.64 ±0.17 better than 0% of ATP · raw −0.63
Shot selection −0.30 ±0.52 better than 23% of ATP · raw −0.29
Execution −1.97 ±0.69 better than 3% of ATP · raw −1.84

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,383 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Magnus Gustafsson goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 125 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 30% 34.6%±10.4 43.7%
BH crosscourt 25% 40.2%±11.3 47.6%
FH inside-out 14% 40.4%±13.1 51.8%
FH through the middle 11% 44.2%±14.0 45.2%
BH slice through the middle 9% 35.6%±14.1 35.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 82 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 32% 50.9%±12.1 47.0%
FH down the line 29% 53.0%±12.4 51.5%
FH crosscourt 22% 54.1%±13.3 52.7%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 54% to the average player · 73 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 44% 51.3%±11.4 53.4%
FH through the middle 32% 42.9%±12.4 47.3%
FH crosscourt 18% 58.2%±14.1 56.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 39% 39.8%±11.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 37% 29.5%±11.2 41.5%
FH down the line 24% 47.1%±13.7 44.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Magnus Gustafsson's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 65 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 27% ▼ 63% / 73%
Body 21% 27% 62% / 63%
T 33% 45% ▲ 73% / 75%

250 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 72% 72% 66% / 73%
Body 12% 17% 57% / 63%
T 16% 11% 66% / 72%

190 normal · 54 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 53.8%±6.7 n=118 45%
Body21% 51.8%±8.9 n=55 8% ▼
T34% 58.2%±7.5 n=88 47% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.49).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide72% 61.3%±5.6 n=175 73% ▲
Body13% 50.4%±10.4 n=32 0% ▼
T15% 55.9%±10.0 n=37 27% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.10).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.68 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.1±6.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (214 repeats, 279 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 6 31% −6.2±12.7
1stAd courtT 58 21% −7.1±7.1
1stAd courtWide 52 31% +3.5±8.4
1stDeuce courtBody 12 45% +8.6±12.6
1stDeuce courtT 54 18% −6.6±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 81 26% −0.9±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 45 44% −5.6±9.4
2ndAd courtT 21 47% −2.6±11.5
2ndAd courtWide 58 47% −1.2±8.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 38 45% −3.9±9.9
2ndDeuce courtT 40 56% +5.9±9.8
2ndDeuce courtWide 36 45% −3.5±10.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Magnus Gustafsson's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 10.4% · won 52% · −8.4±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 9.6% · won 50% · −10.2±11.2 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 8.0% · won 48% · −12.2±11.8 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 12.9% · won 34% · +1.4±10.9 vs own baseline

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · ad court−0.1175
FH to their backhand · rally−1.4126
FH to their backhand · serve +1−2.6122
FH to their forehand · rally−2.8129
BH to the middle · return−5.2124

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−2.4124
FH to their forehand · rally+1.9123

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nick Kyrgios, Quentin Halys, Nicolas Jarry

Charted matches