WTA · Right-handed · 1 charted matches · 2023–2023
Matilde Paoletti
Shot expected value
The share of points Matilde Paoletti goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 45% to the average player · 71 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 54% | 52.6%±10.8 | 47.6% |
| FH inside-out | 18% | 56.1%±14.2 | 52.5% |
| BH down the line | 15% | 43.1%±14.6 | 46.8% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 50% to the average player · 24 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 54% | 44.1%±14.2 | 52.7% |
| FH down the line | 46% | 56.3%±14.7 | 52.2% |
Serve under pressure
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 31% | 0% ▼ | 69% / 66% |
| Body | 44% | 100% ▲ | 59% / 57% |
| T | 24% | 0% ▼ | 70% / 68% |
54 normal · 1 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 36% | 20% ▼ | 62% / 66% |
| Body | 36% | 80% ▲ | 61% / 56% |
| T | 29% | 0% ▼ | 59% / 64% |
42 normal · 10 break-point 1st serves
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 5 | 43% | −0.6±13.8 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 3 | 35% | −0.2±13.7 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 24 | 36% | +1.4±10.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 5 | 45% | +2.5±13.8 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 14 | 40% | +8.0±12.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 10 | 26% | −8.5±11.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 7 | 55% | +0.4±13.4 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 1 | 53% | −1.8±14.7 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 3 | 52% | −1.8±14.3 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 4 | 54% | −0.5±14.1 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 12 | 54% | −1.7±12.6 |
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Matilde Paoletti wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 3.6% · won 42% · −5.5±13.0 vs own baseline · −16.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Magdalena Frech (5/15)