RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 5 charted matches · 2010–2015

Michael Berrer

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 65.0% ±3.7 raw 64.8% · tour 63.4% · 369 points
Return points won 34.7% ±3.7 raw 29.8% · tour 36.6% · 382 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Shot expected value

The share of points Michael Berrer goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 66 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 29% 32.1%±12.3 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 26% 44.6%±13.4 42.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 55 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 60% 42.1%±11.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 22% 38.4%±14.1 41.5%
FH down the line 18% 39.8%±14.7 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 47 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 26% 41.9%±14.3 47.0%
FH crosscourt 26% 54.8%±14.5 52.7%
FH down the line 26% 47.8%±14.5 51.5%
BH through the middle 23% 49.6%±14.8 46.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 43 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 28% 32.9%±13.7 32.6%
BH through the middle 26% 37.4%±14.3 43.0%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 50% 57% 80% / 73%
Body 16% 14% 63% / 63%
T 34% 29% 61% / 75%

179 normal · 7 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 58% ▲ 76% / 73%
Body 10% 13% 58% / 63%
T 45% 29% ▼ 68% / 72%

151 normal · 24 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide50% 69.6%±6.8 n=93
Body16% 69.5%±9.8 n=30
T34% 51.3%±8.5 n=63

Off equilibrium (p < 0.001): serve wide more. Gap 6.2 points per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide47% 70.8%±7.1 n=82
Body10% 59.1%±11.7 n=18
T43% 61.9%±7.8 n=75

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.06).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −0.5±11.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (130 repeats, 221 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 19 37% −0.1±11.3
1stAd courtT 66 26% −1.6±7.4
1stAd courtWide 43 28% +0.4±8.6
1stDeuce courtBody 20 38% +1.3±11.3
1stDeuce courtT 53 19% −6.4±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 70 24% −3.0±7.0
2ndAd courtBody 22 40% −9.4±11.2
2ndAd courtT 18 54% +4.4±11.8
2ndAd courtWide 9 47% −0.9±13.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 28 49% +0.5±10.8
2ndDeuce courtT 9 48% −1.2±13.2
2ndDeuce courtWide 17 43% −4.6±11.9

Charted matches