RallyIQ

WTA · Left-handed · 7 charted matches · 2018–2022

Mihaela Buzarnescu

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.8% ±3.6 raw 52.7% · tour 56.3% · 516 points
Return points won 42.1% ±3.6 raw 37.6% · tour 43.7% · 508 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.02 ±0.14 better than 50% of WTA · raw −0.04
Shot selection −0.55 ±0.33 better than 10% of WTA · raw −0.59
Execution −1.09 ±0.96 better than 16% of WTA · raw −1.36

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,782 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mihaela Buzarnescu goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 190 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 34% 50.2%±9.0 50.9%
FH crosscourt 19% 51.0%±11.0 52.7%
FH through the middle 16% 41.5%±11.3 45.8%
BH through the middle 16% 46.5%±11.6 46.2%
FH down the line 8% 47.0%±13.9 52.2%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 169 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 54.1%±8.3 47.6%
BH through the middle 26% 43.2%±10.2 43.3%
BH slice through the middle 12% 37.2%±12.6 34.4%
BH down the line 9% 53.8%±13.7 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 140 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 49% 40.2%±8.6 46.7%
FH through the middle 22% 47.6%±11.5 41.3%
FH down the line 17% 47.7%±12.4 44.9%
FH slice through the middle 8% 31.8%±13.8 29.2%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 108 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 37% 53.0%±10.6 54.0%
BH crosscourt 22% 46.6%±12.4 52.5%
FH through the middle 20% 45.5%±12.6 45.5%
BH through the middle 14% 55.1%±13.8 46.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Mihaela Buzarnescu's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 67 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 23% 22% 60% / 66%
Body 24% 28% 57% / 57%
T 53% 50% 57% / 68%

250 normal · 18 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 35% 41% 68% / 66%
Body 41% 31% ▼ 61% / 56%
T 24% 29% 62% / 64%

198 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide23% 44.6%±8.5 n=62 38% ▲
Body24% 54.3%±8.4 n=65 25%
T53% 46.7%±6.3 n=141 37% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.21).
Optimal mix: +0.2 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide36% 60.5%±7.4 n=89 51% ▲
Body39% 54.6%±7.3 n=97 24% ▼
T25% 57.5%±8.5 n=61 25%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.55).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.51 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.3±7.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (150 repeats, 351 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 32 47% +3.2±10.4
1stAd courtT 66 30% −5.7±7.7
1stAd courtWide 77 33% −1.4±7.5
1stDeuce courtBody 36 41% −2.0±9.9
1stDeuce courtT 57 26% −6.1±7.7
1stDeuce courtWide 84 33% −1.4±7.2
2ndAd courtBody 26 54% −0.6±10.9
2ndAd courtT 20 55% ±0.0±11.6
2ndAd courtWide 23 45% −8.1±11.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 31 55% +0.2±10.5
2ndDeuce courtT 20 46% −10.4±11.6
2ndDeuce courtWide 36 58% +4.0±10.0

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mihaela Buzarnescu's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 9.0% · won 55% · −0.4±10.4 vs own baseline
  2. Body serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 6.1% · won 52% · −3.3±11.6 vs own baseline
  3. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 8.7% · won 53% · −2.8±10.6 vs own baseline
  4. Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 7.3% · won 52% · −3.5±11.1 vs own baseline
  5. T serve (deuce court) → BH crosscourt used 9.0% · won 50% · −5.3±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.4% · won 55% · +5.9±11.0 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.2% · won 53% · +4.2±9.4 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 6.5% · won 52% · +3.4±11.4 vs own baseline
  4. BH crosscourt → BH down the line used 5.7% · won 51% · +2.5±11.8 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 7.6% · won 50% · +1.5±10.9 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mihaela Buzarnescu wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 51% · +3.3±12.0 vs own baseline · +6.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Caroline Wozniacki (4/7)
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 50% · +2.2±12.4 vs own baseline · +1.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arantxa Rus (10/19)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.2% · won 44% · −3.9±12.8 vs own baseline · −4.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  4. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 42% · −5.2±11.0 vs own baseline · −10.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Serena Williams (3/9), Caroline Wozniacki (7/15)
  5. FH through the middle → FH through the middle → BH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 40% · −7.8±12.8 vs own baseline · −22.3 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Arantxa Rus (1/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their backhand · rally+0.6121
T 1st serve · deuce court−0.1141
BH to their forehand · rally−0.7145
FH to their forehand · rally−1.3125
FH to their backhand · rally−1.7139

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · return−1.7150
FH to their backhand · rally−1.5151
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.5131
FH to the middle · return+0.8127
FH to their forehand · rally+1.4120

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Sara Sorribes Tormo, Maja Chwalinska, Daria Saville, Daria Kasatkina, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches