RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 1986–1993

Mikael Pernfors

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 61.4% ±3.2 raw 58.6% · tour 63.4% · 801 points
Return points won 40.9% ±3.3 raw 42.2% · tour 36.6% · 778 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.40 ±0.19 better than 2% of ATP · raw −0.39
Shot selection −0.96 ±0.70 better than 3% of ATP · raw −0.94
Execution +1.77 ±1.03 better than 99% of ATP · raw +1.95
Points left on the table 3.13 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 14% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 4,472 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Mikael Pernfors goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 305 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 22% 36.5%±8.5 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 16% 41.2%±9.8 35.1%
BH down the line 15% 43.5%±10.1 46.4%
BH crosscourt 13% 47.5%±10.6 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 9% 42.4%±12.0 42.5%
FH inside-out 8% 48.6%±12.4 51.8%
BH slice down the line 7% 33.5%±12.3 37.1%
FH inside-in 4% 51.3%±14.3 54.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 224 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice through the middle 21% 50.0%±10.1 35.1%
BH crosscourt 17% 46.7%±10.9 48.0%
BH through the middle 14% 39.9%±11.2 43.8%
BH slice crosscourt 13% 42.9%±11.5 42.1%
BH down the line 11% 37.0%±12.0 46.5%
BH slice down the line 8% 38.3%±13.1 35.8%
FH inside-out 7% 61.5%±13.5 52.6%
FH through the middle 5% 49.1%±14.8 46.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 183 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 43% 51.8%±8.3 46.6%
FH through the middle 30% 40.4%±9.3 41.5%
FH down the line 27% 36.2%±9.5 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 161 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 30% 56.3%±9.9 51.5%
FH crosscourt 20% 59.5%±11.1 52.7%
FH through the middle 14% 48.6%±12.7 47.0%
BH through the middle 13% 42.4%±12.7 46.8%
BH slice through the middle 7% 41.8%±14.6 44.8%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Mikael Pernfors's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 87 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 39% 36% 60% / 73%
Body 17% 32% ▲ 58% / 63%
T 44% 32% ▼ 70% / 75%

342 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 53% 57% 60% / 73%
Body 14% 12% 61% / 63%
T 33% 31% 74% / 72%

270 normal · 65 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide38% 56.5%±6.3 n=140 38%
Body18% 55.3%±8.4 n=65 5% ▼
T44% 58.7%±5.9 n=159 57% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.77).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide53% 57.8%±5.6 n=179 53%
Body14% 51.3%±9.4 n=47 1% ▼
T33% 59.0%±6.9 n=109 46% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.34).
Optimal mix: +0.7 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.62 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +0.8±5.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (244 repeats, 441 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 21 43% +6.3±11.4
1stAd courtT 53 29% +1.4±8.2
1stAd courtWide 116 38% +11.2±6.6
1stDeuce courtBody 37 39% +2.1±9.8
1stDeuce courtT 96 35% +10.3±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 77 35% +7.5±7.6
2ndAd courtBody 33 50% +1.1±10.4
2ndAd courtT 3 51% +1.6±14.3
2ndAd courtWide 109 51% +2.4±7.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 73 49% +0.2±8.1
2ndDeuce courtT 54 49% −1.0±9.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 23 48% −0.1±11.3

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Mikael Pernfors's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 7.0% · won 56% · −5.3±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.8% · won 53% · −7.9±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle used 7.5% · won 52% · −8.9±10.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 12.2% · won 53% · +5.4±10.2 vs own baseline
  2. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, short used 8.5% · won 49% · +2.1±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, mid used 14.8% · won 49% · +1.6±9.6 vs own baseline
  4. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH through the middle, short used 8.9% · won 48% · +1.2±11.3 vs own baseline
  5. vs T serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 8.1% · won 45% · −2.7±11.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 2.8% · won 51% · +5.9±11.2 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 51% · +5.9±11.4 vs own baseline
  3. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 3.9% · won 48% · +3.4±10.3 vs own baseline
  4. FH down the line → FH inside-out used 2.3% · won 49% · +4.0±11.7 vs own baseline
  5. BH down the line → FH crosscourt used 2.7% · won 48% · +3.1±11.3 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Mikael Pernfors wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH down the line → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 57% · +7.7±12.8 vs own baseline · +21.9 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. FH down the line → FH crosscourt → BH slice through the middle used 0.9% · won 48% · −0.6±12.1 vs own baseline · +9.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jimmy Connors (9/17)
  3. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 0.7% · won 42% · −6.9±12.7 vs own baseline · −17.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jimmy Connors (2/10)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH slice to the middle · rally+5.0140
FH to their backhand · rally+2.1351
FH to the middle · rally+0.8198
BH to the middle · return+0.7208
BH to the middle · rally+0.1170

Most exposed to

FH to the middle · return−1.8131
BH to their forehand · rally−1.5205
BH slice to their backhand · rally−1.2155
BH to their backhand · rally−0.8256
FH to their backhand · rally−0.5370

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roman Safiullin, Tomas Machac, Miomir Kecmanovic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tommy Paul

Charted matches