RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 8 charted matches · 2022–2026

Moyuka Uchijima

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.2% ±3.8 raw 54.9% · tour 56.3% · 630 points
Return points won 45.2% ±3.8 raw 43.5% · tour 43.7% · 643 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.13 ±0.14 better than 29% of WTA · raw −0.13
Shot selection +0.45 ±0.35 better than 93% of WTA · raw +0.46
Execution −0.17 ±0.93 better than 53% of WTA · raw −0.09
Points left on the table 2.76 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 26% of WTA

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,041 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Moyuka Uchijima goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 252 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 45% 38.6%±6.9 43.3%
BH crosscourt 27% 44.4%±8.7 47.6%
BH down the line 13% 52.6%±11.4 46.8%
FH inside-out 10% 52.2%±12.2 52.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 182 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 26% 66.5%±9.5 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 53.2%±10.5 52.2%
FH through the middle 20% 50.3%±11.0 45.8%
BH through the middle 20% 50.4%±11.0 46.2%
BH crosscourt 7% 53.7%±14.5 50.9%
BH down the line 5% 60.0%±14.7 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 136 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 40% 48.5%±9.5 46.7%
FH through the middle 26% 42.3%±11.0 41.3%
FH down the line 20% 44.6%±11.9 44.9%
FH slice crosscourt 8% 46.4%±14.7 31.9%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 114 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 38% 50.1%±10.4 42.7%
BH crosscourt 38% 51.7%±10.4 47.9%
BH slice through the middle 11% 27.2%±12.9 33.4%
BH down the line 9% 47.8%±15.0 46.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Moyuka Uchijima's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 67 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 60% 43% ▼ 65% / 66%
Body 13% 14% 60% / 57%
T 27% 43% ▲ 66% / 68%

313 normal · 14 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 38% 51% ▲ 65% / 66%
Body 22% 19% 52% / 56%
T 41% 30% ▼ 63% / 64%

250 normal · 53 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide59% 52.3%±5.5 n=193 57% ▼
Body13% 54.9%±9.5 n=44 0% ▼
T28% 53.9%±7.5 n=90 43% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.88).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide40% 59.1%±6.6 n=121 55% ▲
Body21% 50.2%±8.5 n=64 6% ▼
T39% 58.6%±6.7 n=118 39%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.19).
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.61 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +8.6±5.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (234 repeats, 380 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 41 42% −1.4±9.7
1stAd courtT 73 35% −0.9±7.7
1stAd courtWide 82 32% −2.0±7.3
1stDeuce courtBody 56 45% +2.5±8.8
1stDeuce courtT 60 33% +0.8±8.1
1stDeuce courtWide 93 33% −1.3±7.0
2ndAd courtBody 49 56% +1.3±9.2
2ndAd courtT 28 56% +1.0±10.7
2ndAd courtWide 32 53% −0.2±10.4
2ndDeuce courtBody 62 62% +7.9±8.3
2ndDeuce courtT 23 51% −5.4±11.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 38 55% +0.8±9.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Moyuka Uchijima's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.2% · won 58% · −3.9±11.5 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 6.3% · won 59% · +5.7±9.8 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 4.3% · won 59% · +5.8±10.9 vs own baseline
  3. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.3% · won 58% · +4.8±11.6 vs own baseline
  4. BH direction unknown → BH direction unknown used 5.1% · won 56% · +2.6±10.4 vs own baseline
  5. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 4.3% · won 53% · +0.4±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Moyuka Uchijima wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 2.2% · won 51% · +2.7±10.7 vs own baseline · +9.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Magda Linette (4/10), Coco Gauff (4/9)
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.4% · won 51% · +3.0±12.0 vs own baseline · +10.0 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Coco Gauff (3/9), Magda Linette (5/7)
  3. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.2% · won 50% · +1.9±12.4 vs own baseline · +6.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Coco Gauff (3/6), Magda Linette (4/6)
  4. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 49% · +0.9±11.8 vs own baseline · +1.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Emma Raducanu (3/7), Magda Linette (5/10)
  5. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.0% · won 49% · +0.7±12.9 vs own baseline · +1.4 vs tour on the same sequence
  6. BH through the middle → FH down the line → BH through the middle used 1.5% · won 48% · −0.2±11.9 vs own baseline · +5.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally+1.6218
FH to their forehand · rally+1.3212
FH to their backhand · rally+0.9152
BH to their backhand · rally+0.8150
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−2.6172

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally−2.8189
FH to the middle · return−0.2125
Wide 1st serve · deuce court+0.7122
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.9126
FH to their backhand · rally+1.3173

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Maja Chwalinska, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Yulia Putintseva, Elsa Jacquemot, Caroline Wozniacki

Charted matches