RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 1999–2001

Nicolas Lapentti

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.5% ±3.8 raw 53.5% · tour 63.4% · 417 points
Return points won 36.5% ±3.9 raw 31.2% · tour 36.6% · 359 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.23 ±0.09 better than 10% of ATP · raw −0.23
Shot selection −0.67 ±0.44 better than 6% of ATP · raw −0.68
Execution −0.88 ±1.05 better than 29% of ATP · raw −0.95

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,072 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nicolas Lapentti goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 156 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 23% 37.0%±10.6 43.7%
BH slice crosscourt 22% 35.5%±10.6 42.5%
BH crosscourt 16% 50.0%±12.3 47.6%
BH slice through the middle 13% 25.1%±11.3 35.1%
FH inside-out 10% 41.1%±13.7 51.8%
BH down the line 8% 46.3%±14.3 46.4%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 126 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 33% 29.7%±9.5 42.1%
BH crosscourt 27% 40.0%±11.0 48.0%
BH slice through the middle 14% 36.9%±12.9 35.1%
BH through the middle 11% 28.7%±12.8 43.8%
BH down the line 8% 37.6%±14.6 46.5%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 80 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 34% 38.2%±11.7 44.8%
FH crosscourt 33% 55.2%±12.1 46.9%
FH through the middle 25% 38.2%±12.6 41.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 77 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 42% 30.7%±10.5 44.7%
FH crosscourt 30% 37.9%±12.2 46.6%
FH through the middle 29% 36.4%±12.2 41.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +7 How much less varied Nicolas Lapentti's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 53 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 30% 33% 71% / 73%
Body 8% 0% ▼ 52% / 63%
T 62% 67% 73% / 75%

203 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 41% 52% ▲ 68% / 73%
Body 13% 11% 64% / 63%
T 46% 36% ▼ 59% / 72%

152 normal · 44 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide30% 54.8%±8.5 n=63 43% ▲
Body8% 47.8%±12.0 n=17 0% ▼
T62% 56.7%±6.4 n=132 57% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.24).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide43% 53.6%±7.7 n=85
Body13% 61.7%±10.8 n=25
T44% 51.0%±7.6 n=86

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.16).

Exploitability 0.40 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +6.6±4.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (187 repeats, 211 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 1 36% −1.2±14.2
1stAd courtT 40 31% +2.6±9.1
1stAd courtWide 42 32% +4.9±9.1
1stDeuce courtBody 3 36% −0.3±13.8
1stDeuce courtT 44 24% −1.4±8.1
1stDeuce courtWide 66 21% −6.2±6.8
2ndAd courtBody 20 38% −11.8±11.3
2ndAd courtT 13 46% −3.3±12.5
2ndAd courtWide 48 49% +1.0±9.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 12 42% −6.9±12.5
2ndDeuce courtT 29 51% +1.0±10.7
2ndDeuce courtWide 28 37% −11.1±10.4

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nicolas Lapentti wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.6% · won 39% · +1.5±12.4 vs own baseline · −5.6 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (3/7), Gustavo Kuerten (3/6)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

T 1st serve · deuce court−1.3132
FH to their backhand · rally−1.5134

Most exposed to

BH to their backhand · rally±0.0192
FH to their forehand · rally±0.0143

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Richard Gasquet, Nishesh Basavareddy, Arthur Cazaux, Jaume Munar, Daniel Evans

Charted matches