RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2021–2025

Nicolas Mejia

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 64.4% ±3.8 raw 64.3% · tour 63.4% · 359 points
Return points won 36.1% ±3.8 raw 35.3% · tour 36.6% · 365 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.32 ±0.22 better than 5% of ATP · raw −0.31
Shot selection −0.10 ±0.18 better than 41% of ATP · raw −0.07
Execution −0.62 ±0.44 better than 40% of ATP · raw −0.19

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,070 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Nicolas Mejia goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 167 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 33% 51.4%±9.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 30% 45.3%±9.8 43.7%
BH down the line 8% 42.0%±13.9 46.4%
BH slice down the line 7% 29.4%±13.2 37.1%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 116 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 38% 44.2%±10.2 41.5%
FH crosscourt 35% 61.2%±10.3 46.6%
FH down the line 22% 54.2%±12.1 44.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 78 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 32% 43.4%±12.2 52.7%
FH down the line 23% 50.8%±13.3 51.5%
FH through the middle 22% 41.6%±13.3 47.0%
BH through the middle 17% 43.5%±14.2 46.8%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 71 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 41% 44.1%±11.7 43.0%
BH crosscourt 34% 41.8%±12.2 46.9%

Serve under pressure

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 0% ▼ 64% / 73%
Body 10% 20% ▲ 58% / 63%
T 48% 80% ▲ 79% / 75%

180 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 55% 60% 73% / 73%
Body 5% 7% 59% / 63%
T 40% 33% 75% / 72%

159 normal · 15 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide41% 63.6%±7.7 n=75
Body10% 62.0%±11.4 n=19
T49% 69.6%±6.9 n=91

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.30).

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints won
Wide56% 62.1%±7.1 n=97
Body5% 56.2%±13.1 n=9
T39% 65.9%±7.9 n=68

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.83).

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −2.5±6.0 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (138 repeats, 213 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 10 38% +0.8±12.6
1stAd courtT 42 26% −2.5±8.5
1stAd courtWide 61 29% +1.5±7.8
1stDeuce courtBody 12 38% +1.4±12.3
1stDeuce courtT 50 19% −5.7±7.3
1stDeuce courtWide 50 23% −4.5±7.7
2ndAd courtBody 11 46% −3.5±12.8
2ndAd courtT 2 49% ±0.0±14.5
2ndAd courtWide 48 52% +3.6±9.3
2ndDeuce courtBody 19 38% −10.8±11.4
2ndDeuce courtT 51 59% +9.4±9.0
2ndDeuce courtWide 9 52% +4.3±13.2

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Nicolas Mejia's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 21.5% · won 69% · −9.5±10.0 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 9.6% · won 51% · +2.8±11.3 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 8.0% · won 49% · +0.9±11.8 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 8.0% · won 43% · −5.1±11.7 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Nicolas Mejia wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.4% · won 49% · +2.8±13.1 vs own baseline · +7.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Federico Delbonis (8/15)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to the middle · rally+1.4122
FH to their backhand · rally−1.6136

Most exposed to

FH to their forehand · rally+0.6141
FH to their backhand · rally+1.8190

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Charted matches