RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 6 charted matches · 2017–2023

Oscar Otte

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.4% ±3.6 raw 61.8% · tour 63.4% · 469 points
Return points won 34.8% ±3.6 raw 31.8% · tour 36.6% · 440 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice ±0.00 ±0.13 better than 57% of ATP · raw +0.01
Shot selection −0.32 ±0.46 better than 21% of ATP · raw −0.30
Execution −1.08 ±1.56 better than 23% of ATP · raw −0.77

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,177 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Oscar Otte goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 117 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 46.5%±9.8 47.6%
BH through the middle 22% 34.2%±11.5 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 15% 29.8%±12.4 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 12% 39.7%±13.8 42.5%
BH down the line 9% 47.6%±15.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 84 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 31% 55.0%±12.1 51.5%
FH crosscourt 26% 51.3%±12.7 52.7%
BH through the middle 19% 48.2%±13.7 46.8%
FH through the middle 14% 38.8%±14.2 47.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 74 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 41% 42.6%±11.5 46.6%
FH through the middle 34% 34.0%±11.6 41.5%

Serve +1: deep return to your middle

position worth 47% to the average player · 57 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 28% 38.2%±13.3 43.8%
FH down the line 23% 47.2%±14.3 47.9%
BH crosscourt 18% 54.3%±15.0 46.4%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +12 How much less varied Oscar Otte's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 45 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 46% 27% ▼ 74% / 73%
Body 7% 9% 60% / 63%
T 48% 64% ▲ 75% / 75%

230 normal · 11 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 59% ▲ 74% / 73%
Body 8% 3% 61% / 63%
T 47% 38% ▼ 67% / 72%

192 normal · 34 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide45% 64.9%±6.7 n=108 58% ▲
Body7% 57.0%±12.0 n=16 0% ▼
T49% 61.4%±6.6 n=117 42% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.33).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 62.5%±6.8 n=107 60% ▲
Body7% 62.9%±11.7 n=16 0% ▼
T46% 61.1%±7.0 n=103 40% ▼

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.93).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.41 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.9±10.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (205 repeats, 250 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 9 39% +1.7±12.8
1stAd courtT 44 25% −3.2±8.3
1stAd courtWide 56 21% −6.1±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 8 34% −2.5±12.7
1stDeuce courtT 73 25% −0.3±7.0
1stDeuce courtWide 69 22% −4.8±6.9
2ndAd courtBody 39 55% +5.4±9.9
2ndAd courtT 20 48% −1.7±11.6
2ndAd courtWide 40 48% −0.5±9.8
2ndDeuce courtBody 45 44% −5.4±9.4
2ndDeuce courtT 29 39% −10.9±10.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 7 52% +4.4±13.5

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−0.1121

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Charted matches