ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2022–2024
Paul Jubb
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Value per 100 shots
Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,505 shots.
Shot expected value
The share of points Paul Jubb goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 130 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 38% | 46.5%±9.8 | 47.6% |
| BH through the middle | 25% | 50.5%±11.3 | 43.7% |
| BH down the line | 9% | 41.5%±14.3 | 46.4% |
| BH slice crosscourt | 8% | 40.3%±14.5 | 42.5% |
| BH slice down the line | 8% | 38.0%±14.6 | 37.1% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 95 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 28% | 71.4%±10.8 | 52.7% |
| FH through the middle | 24% | 42.8%±12.4 | 47.0% |
| FH down the line | 22% | 47.1%±12.8 | 51.5% |
| BH through the middle | 13% | 48.0%±14.5 | 46.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 13% | 46.3%±14.5 | 49.1% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 90 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 53% | 47.5%±10.0 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 26% | 35.6%±12.0 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 16% | 35.1%±13.5 | 44.7% |
Serve +1: deep return to your middle
position worth 47% to the average player · 86 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH down the line | 30% | 49.1%±12.1 | 47.9% |
| FH crosscourt | 27% | 42.4%±12.4 | 51.2% |
| FH through the middle | 23% | 51.9%±13.0 | 43.8% |
| BH crosscourt | 13% | 39.6%±14.5 | 46.4% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index +2 How much less varied Paul Jubb's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 46 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 31% ▼ | 73% / 73% |
| Body | 29% | 15% ▼ | 57% / 63% |
| T | 32% | 54% ▲ | 77% / 75% |
285 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 33% | 82% / 73% |
| Body | 26% | 33% | 60% / 63% |
| T | 35% | 33% | 69% / 72% |
237 normal · 33 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 39% | 66.8%±6.4 n=115 | 52% ▲ |
| Body | 29% | 54.2%±7.6 n=85 | 15% ▼ |
| T | 33% | 65.9%±6.9 n=98 | 33% |
Off equilibrium (p = 0.023): serve wide more. Gap 3.9 points per 100 first serves.
Optimal mix: +1.0 per 100 first serves.
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won | Optimal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 38% | 67.2%±6.7 n=103 | 51% ▲ |
| Body | 27% | 58.8%±8.0 n=72 | 14% ▼ |
| T | 35% | 61.9%±7.1 n=95 | 35% |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.27).
Optimal mix: +0.8 per 100 first serves.
Exploitability 0.90 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −1.3±6.2 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (162 repeats, 398 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 7 | 44% | +6.5±13.4 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 64 | 32% | +4.3±7.9 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 95 | 27% | +0.1±6.6 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 10 | 33% | −4.2±12.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 83 | 27% | +1.9±6.9 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 87 | 32% | +4.6±7.1 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 19 | 53% | +3.3±11.7 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 23 | 49% | −0.6±11.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 42 | 47% | −1.8±9.7 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 19 | 54% | +5.5±11.7 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 51 | 39% | −10.3±8.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 22 | 53% | +4.7±11.4 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Paul Jubb's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Body serve (deuce court) → FH crosscourt used 6.7% · won 66% · −7.1±11.1 vs own baseline
- Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 6.7% · won 56% · −17.1±11.5 vs own baseline
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 20.4% · won 59% · +6.6±10.4 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 15.5% · won 51% · −0.9±11.5 vs own baseline
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their forehand · rally | +3.2 | 132 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −1.2 | 134 |
Most exposed to
| Wide 1st serve · ad court | −1.7 | 136 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | −0.4 | 130 |
| T 1st serve · deuce court | −0.3 | 128 |
| Wide 1st serve · deuce court | −0.1 | 128 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | ±0.0 | 147 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Reilly Opelka, Nicolas Jarry, Nick Kyrgios, Maxime Cressy