RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 5 charted matches · 2001–2014

Robby Ginepri

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 63.7% ±3.6 raw 57.9% · tour 63.4% · 508 points
Return points won 35.2% ±3.8 raw 28.7% · tour 36.6% · 432 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.03 ±0.14 better than 49% of ATP · raw −0.04
Shot selection +0.10 ±0.46 better than 65% of ATP · raw +0.07
Execution −0.54 ±1.03 better than 43% of ATP · raw −1.01

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,385 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Robby Ginepri goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 137 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 41.6%±8.9 47.6%
BH through the middle 21% 46.4%±11.7 43.7%
BH down the line 19% 44.1%±12.0 46.4%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 124 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 38% 40.8%±9.9 46.6%
FH through the middle 28% 29.6%±10.1 41.5%
FH down the line 27% 42.5%±11.1 44.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 90 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 46% 45.2%±10.5 48.0%
BH through the middle 21% 32.7%±12.4 43.8%
BH down the line 18% 31.4%±12.7 46.5%

Return +1: drive to your backhand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 44% 43.9%±11.4 46.9%
BH through the middle 23% 32.2%±12.8 43.0%
BH down the line 19% 41.9%±14.1 44.2%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −3 How much less varied Robby Ginepri's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 54 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 44% 65% / 73%
Body 9% 11% 64% / 63%
T 39% 44% 74% / 75%

251 normal · 9 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 42% 40% 65% / 73%
Body 8% 9% 58% / 63%
T 51% 51% 62% / 72%

198 normal · 45 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 58.2%±6.3 n=134 47% ▼
Body9% 61.5%±11.0 n=23 0% ▼
T40% 59.6%±7.0 n=103 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.82).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide42% 53.7%±7.2 n=101 36% ▼
Body8% 54.7%±11.7 n=19 0% ▼
T51% 57.4%±6.6 n=123 64% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.76).
Optimal mix: +0.3 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.31 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +3.8±3.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (226 repeats, 267 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 13 30% −6.5±11.5
1stAd courtT 41 22% −6.3±8.0
1stAd courtWide 67 23% −4.4±7.0
1stDeuce courtBody 17 38% +1.6±11.7
1stDeuce courtT 49 23% −1.6±7.8
1stDeuce courtWide 76 23% −4.4±6.7
2ndAd courtBody 19 42% −6.9±11.6
2ndAd courtT 11 43% −5.9±12.7
2ndAd courtWide 53 48% −0.8±9.0
2ndDeuce courtBody 33 41% −8.2±10.2
2ndDeuce courtT 39 49% −0.6±9.9
2ndDeuce courtWide 10 44% −4.5±12.9

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Robby Ginepri's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Not enough data

Return

  1. vs wide serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt, mid used 33.7% · won 49% · +4.8±10.0 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 7.9% · won 43% · +1.5±11.7 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 12.6% · won 38% · −3.6±10.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Robby Ginepri wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 1.5% · won 41% · +0.1±12.5 vs own baseline · −7.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Andre Agassi (5/14)

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their backhand · rally−0.6137
T 1st serve · ad court−0.6123
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.6134
BH to their backhand · rally−1.2136

Most exposed to

FH to their backhand · rally−2.7164
FH to their forehand · rally−1.7129

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Adrian Andreev, Alex Molcan, Rafael Nadal, Hugo Gaston, Daniel Evans

Charted matches