RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2013–2019

Shuai Peng

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 56.1% ±3.9 raw 53.1% · tour 56.3% · 467 points
Return points won 40.8% ±3.9 raw 37.6% · tour 43.7% · 452 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.04 ±0.13 better than 60% of WTA · raw +0.05
Shot selection +0.06 ±0.11 better than 52% of WTA · raw +0.08
Execution −0.34 ±1.00 better than 42% of WTA · raw −0.19

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,363 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Shuai Peng goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 127 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 21% 47.8%±12.0 52.2%
FH through the middle 17% 32.1%±12.0 45.8%
BH through the middle 17% 46.9%±12.8 46.2%
BH crosscourt 16% 48.0%±13.0 50.9%
FH crosscourt 15% 55.2%±13.1 52.7%
BH down the line 15% 43.6%±13.1 50.0%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 91 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 36% 33.1%±10.6 47.6%
BH down the line 35% 35.3%±10.9 46.8%
BH through the middle 29% 29.7%±11.1 43.3%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 87 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 37% 50.0%±11.4 44.9%
FH crosscourt 34% 44.7%±11.6 46.7%
FH through the middle 23% 35.7%±12.5 41.3%

Return +1: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 75 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 25% 57.9%±13.0 53.0%
BH down the line 21% 58.7%±13.5 50.6%
FH crosscourt 21% 51.3%±13.7 52.3%
BH crosscourt 19% 44.6%±14.0 50.8%
FH through the middle 13% 41.0%±14.8 46.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +1 How much less varied Shuai Peng's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 64 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 47% 45% 59% / 66%
Body 15% 9% 59% / 57%
T 38% 45% 70% / 68%

222 normal · 22 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 32% 36% 61% / 66%
Body 16% 17% 58% / 56%
T 52% 48% 60% / 64%

178 normal · 42 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide47% 50.4%±6.9 n=114 46%
Body14% 54.9%±10.2 n=35 0% ▼
T39% 55.8%±7.3 n=95 54% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.53).
Optimal mix: +0.4 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide33% 54.4%±8.1 n=72 48% ▲
Body16% 53.6%±10.2 n=35 1% ▼
T51% 52.1%±6.9 n=113 51%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.92).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.43 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −9.4±8.9 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (157 repeats, 293 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 24 41% −2.8±11.0
1stAd courtT 55 38% +2.9±8.7
1stAd courtWide 50 27% −7.8±8.1
1stDeuce courtBody 27 33% −9.7±10.2
1stDeuce courtT 43 26% −6.6±8.4
1stDeuce courtWide 73 35% +1.1±7.7
2ndAd courtBody 32 56% +0.6±10.4
2ndAd courtT 27 55% +0.2±10.8
2ndAd courtWide 29 41% −12.8±10.5
2ndDeuce courtBody 30 49% −5.6±10.6
2ndDeuce courtT 33 54% −2.4±10.3
2ndDeuce courtWide 29 54% +0.7±10.7

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Shuai Peng's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. T serve (ad court) → BH crosscourt used 7.6% · won 59% · +0.6±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.6% · won 55% · −3.4±11.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. Not enough data

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 9.8% · won 42% · +2.2±10.7 vs own baseline
  2. FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.1% · won 42% · +1.9±11.0 vs own baseline

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

FH to their forehand · rally−2.3140

Most exposed to

Charted matches