ATP · Right-handed · 4 charted matches · 2019–2026
Sumit Nagal
Against an average opponent
Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.
Shot expected value
The share of points Sumit Nagal goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 124 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 35% | 46.1%±10.3 | 47.6% |
| FH inside-out | 29% | 52.4%±11.0 | 51.8% |
| BH through the middle | 25% | 40.7%±11.3 | 43.7% |
| FH inside-in | 10% | 57.4%±14.2 | 54.7% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side
position worth 44% to the average player · 89 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 60% | 51.1%±9.6 | 46.6% |
| FH through the middle | 24% | 49.5%±12.8 | 41.5% |
| FH down the line | 17% | 51.3%±13.9 | 44.7% |
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle
position worth 51% to the average player · 82 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| FH crosscourt | 37% | 47.1%±11.6 | 52.7% |
| FH down the line | 22% | 53.4%±13.3 | 51.5% |
| FH through the middle | 21% | 52.4%±13.5 | 47.0% |
| BH through the middle | 15% | 54.3%±14.5 | 46.8% |
Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side
position worth 46% to the average player · 66 shots
| Option | Used | Win % | Tour |
|---|---|---|---|
| BH crosscourt | 52% | 49.3%±11.2 | 48.0% |
| FH inside-out | 23% | 52.9%±13.9 | 52.6% |
| BH through the middle | 17% | 41.2%±14.5 | 43.8% |
Serve under pressure
Pressure predictability index +18 How much less varied Sumit Nagal's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 54 break-point first serves.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 60% ▲ | 68% / 73% |
| Body | 12% | 0% ▼ | 59% / 63% |
| T | 38% | 40% | 69% / 75% |
161 normal · 5 break-point 1st serves
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Break pt | Won when in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide | 65% | 73% ▲ | 63% / 73% |
| Body | 7% | 4% | 59% / 63% |
| T | 28% | 22% | 67% / 72% |
110 normal · 49 break-point 1st serves
Is the serve mix in equilibrium?
Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.
Deuce court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 50% | 59.1%±7.6 n=83 |
| Body | 12% | 49.5%±11.6 n=20 |
| T | 38% | 47.5%±8.5 n=63 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.07).
Ad court
| 1st serve | Usage | Points won |
|---|---|---|
| Wide | 67% | 56.9%±7.0 n=107 |
| Body | 6% | 55.3%±12.9 n=10 |
| T | 26% | 54.6%±9.7 n=42 |
Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.90).
Repeating the previous direction to the same court: +7.9±2.7 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (128 repeats, 189 switches.)
Return by serve direction
Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.
| Serve | Court | Direction | Points | Won | vs tour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Ad court | Body | 13 | 37% | +0.4±12.1 | |
| 1st | Ad court | T | 33 | 26% | −2.0±9.1 | |
| 1st | Ad court | Wide | 42 | 34% | +6.3±9.2 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Body | 17 | 38% | +1.6±11.7 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | T | 30 | 34% | +9.1±10.1 | |
| 1st | Deuce court | Wide | 42 | 27% | −0.6±8.6 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Body | 14 | 45% | −4.3±12.3 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | T | 21 | 47% | −2.6±11.5 | |
| 2nd | Ad court | Wide | 19 | 50% | +1.7±11.7 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Body | 22 | 53% | +4.3±11.4 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | T | 27 | 51% | +1.0±10.9 | |
| 2nd | Deuce court | Wide | 15 | 48% | −0.5±12.2 |
Signature patterns
Recurring sequences that win more than Sumit Nagal's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.
Serve → +1
- Wide serve (ad court) → FH crosscourt used 14.9% · won 50% · −10.2±11.8 vs own baseline
Return
- Not enough data
Rally, consecutive own shots
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 11.1% · won 58% · +6.6±11.1 vs own baseline
- BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 9.3% · won 49% · −2.7±11.8 vs own baseline
- FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 9.3% · won 45% · −6.7±11.8 vs own baseline
Discovered sequences
Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Sumit Nagal wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.
- FH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 56% · +6.3±13.0 vs own baseline · +20.8 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (7/9)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH down the line used 1.8% · won 51% · +1.3±12.7 vs own baseline · +6.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (5/7)
- FH crosscourt → FH down the line → BH crosscourt used 1.7% · won 47% · −2.3±12.9 vs own baseline · −5.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (5/11)
- FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 2.2% · won 44% · −5.3±12.1 vs own baseline · −10.7 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Jesper De Jong (7/14)
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.
Hurts opponents most with
| FH to their backhand · rally | +3.6 | 143 |
| FH to their forehand · rally | +0.6 | 172 |
Most exposed to
| FH to their forehand · rally | −2.7 | 125 |
| FH to their backhand · rally | −0.7 | 135 |
Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Roberto Carballes Baena, Roberto Bautista Agut, Miomir Kecmanovic, Pedro Martinez, Camilo Ugo Carabelli