RallyIQ

ATP · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 1989–1998

Todd Woodbridge

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 62.3% ±3.4 raw 58.3% · tour 63.4% · 540 points
Return points won 38.8% ±3.5 raw 35.1% · tour 36.6% · 522 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice +0.09 ±0.22 better than 79% of ATP · raw +0.09
Shot selection −0.85 ±0.50 better than 4% of ATP · raw −0.85
Execution −1.34 ±1.10 better than 15% of ATP · raw −1.41

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,320 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Todd Woodbridge goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 125 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 39% 39.9%±9.7 42.5%
BH slice down the line 18% 36.7%±12.2 37.1%
BH slice through the middle 16% 30.1%±11.9 35.1%
BH crosscourt 10% 51.6%±14.5 47.6%
BH through the middle 8% 35.8%±14.4 43.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 67 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH slice crosscourt 43% 49.9%±11.7 42.1%
BH slice down the line 22% 31.9%±13.0 35.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 62 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 47% 45.5%±11.7 46.6%
FH down the line 29% 42.0%±13.2 44.7%
FH through the middle 24% 40.8%±13.7 41.5%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 61 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 28% 54.9%±13.5 51.5%
FH crosscourt 26% 51.5%±13.7 52.7%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index +16 How much less varied Todd Woodbridge's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 53 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 45% 77% ▲ 71% / 73%
Body 11% 0% ▼ 54% / 63%
T 44% 23% ▼ 76% / 75%

256 normal · 13 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 56% 65% ▲ 66% / 73%
Body 11% 13% 61% / 63%
T 33% 23% ▼ 70% / 72%

206 normal · 40 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide46% 62.4%±6.4 n=125 47%
Body11% 57.1%±10.6 n=29 0% ▼
T43% 62.9%±6.6 n=115 53% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.52).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide58% 54.0%±6.3 n=142 56% ▼
Body11% 51.9%±10.8 n=28 0% ▼
T31% 56.7%±7.9 n=76 44% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.72).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.51 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −5.6±4.4 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (189 repeats, 312 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 12 38% +1.3±12.3
1stAd courtT 44 28% −0.5±8.5
1stAd courtWide 83 31% +3.9±7.2
1stDeuce courtBody 14 36% −0.3±11.9
1stDeuce courtT 88 19% −6.0±6.0
1stDeuce courtWide 63 23% −4.4±7.2
2ndAd courtBody 26 53% +3.9±11.0
2ndAd courtT 14 47% −2.0±12.4
2ndAd courtWide 61 53% +4.9±8.6
2ndDeuce courtBody 10 54% +5.2±13.0
2ndDeuce courtT 64 42% −7.2±8.4
2ndDeuce courtWide 25 48% ±0.0±11.1

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−0.7125
Wide 1st serve · ad court−1.4142

Most exposed to

T 1st serve · deuce court−0.1143
Wide 1st serve · ad court+0.5132
BH to their backhand · return+1.0126

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Nick Kyrgios, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Milos Raonic, Reilly Opelka, Hamad Medjedovic

Charted matches