RallyIQ

WTA · Right-handed · 7 charted matches · 2023–2026

Zeynep Sonmez

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 54.5% ±3.8 raw 50.8% · tour 56.3% · 453 points
Return points won 43.7% ±3.7 raw 39.0% · tour 43.7% · 484 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.39 ±0.12 better than 2% of WTA · raw −0.40
Shot selection +1.00 ±0.15 better than 100% of WTA · raw +0.98
Execution −2.07 ±0.59 better than 4% of WTA · raw −2.20

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 2,375 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Zeynep Sonmez goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle

position worth 50% to the average player · 147 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 28% 51.6%±10.5 52.2%
FH through the middle 21% 45.4%±11.5 45.8%
BH through the middle 21% 43.6%±11.4 46.2%
BH down the line 10% 42.9%±13.8 50.0%
BH crosscourt 8% 50.6%±14.5 50.9%
FH crosscourt 7% 45.1%±14.9 52.7%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 45% to the average player · 134 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH crosscourt 43% 47.4%±9.4 47.6%
BH through the middle 38% 39.0%±9.5 43.3%
BH down the line 19% 42.1%±12.0 46.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side

position worth 43% to the average player · 89 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH through the middle 40% 41.5%±10.8 41.3%
FH crosscourt 30% 47.6%±12.0 46.7%
FH down the line 29% 36.9%±11.7 44.9%

Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 70 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH down the line 29% 56.6%±12.9 53.3%
BH through the middle 29% 45.7%±13.0 46.3%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −1 How much less varied Zeynep Sonmez's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 60 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 52% 53% 63% / 66%
Body 38% 32% 55% / 57%
T 10% 16% 63% / 68%

219 normal · 19 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 28% 32% 60% / 66%
Body 26% 22% 51% / 56%
T 46% 46% 63% / 64%

173 normal · 41 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. A direction loses 0.19 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage, measured from WTA servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide52% 55.8%±6.6 n=124 59% ▲
Body37% 50.1%±7.5 n=89 22% ▼
T11% 48.5%±11.1 n=25 19% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.36).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide29% 53.3%±8.6 n=61 44% ▲
Body25% 43.3%±8.9 n=54 10% ▼
T46% 48.7%±7.2 n=99 46%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.26).
Optimal mix: +0.9 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.74 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of WTA servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, WTA mixes picked this way win 0.42 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −3.5±9.1 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (147 repeats, 291 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 33 46% +2.4±10.3
1stAd courtT 52 35% −0.6±8.7
1stAd courtWide 62 28% −6.9±7.7
1stDeuce courtBody 38 41% −1.8±9.8
1stDeuce courtT 41 30% −1.7±9.0
1stDeuce courtWide 89 33% −1.1±7.1
2ndAd courtBody 47 49% −6.3±9.4
2ndAd courtT 14 53% −1.6±12.4
2ndAd courtWide 28 57% +3.5±10.7
2ndDeuce courtBody 49 47% −7.2±9.2
2ndDeuce courtT 7 54% −2.5±13.5
2ndDeuce courtWide 24 58% +3.9±11.1

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Zeynep Sonmez's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Body serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.1% · won 58% · +1.1±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. Wide serve (deuce court) → FH down the line used 7.5% · won 49% · −7.9±11.6 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → FH through the middle, mid used 22.2% · won 45% · −3.2±11.4 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH through the middle → BH through the middle used 6.8% · won 46% · +4.8±11.6 vs own baseline
  2. BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 7.2% · won 41% · +0.1±11.3 vs own baseline
  3. BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 8.5% · won 40% · −1.0±10.8 vs own baseline
  4. BH through the middle → FH down the line used 7.5% · won 36% · −4.5±11.0 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Zeynep Sonmez wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.6% · won 51% · +7.5±12.6 vs own baseline · +16.6 vs tour on the same sequence
  2. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 1.8% · won 41% · −2.3±11.9 vs own baseline · −0.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Emma Navarro (1/6), Marta Kostyuk (4/9)
  3. BH crosscourt → BH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.8% · won 41% · −2.3±11.9 vs own baseline · −5.8 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to the middle · rally−0.5128
FH to their backhand · rally−2.1131
Wide 1st serve · deuce court−2.4124

Most exposed to

Wide 1st serve · deuce court−1.7128
BH to their backhand · rally−1.2121

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Caroline Garcia, Elena Rybakina, Linda Noskova, Katie Volynets, Serena Williams

Charted matches