US Open · F · Clay · 11 Sep 1977
Guillermo Vilas v Jimmy Connors
129–112 in points · Guillermo Vilas won
Why it went the way it did
Guillermo Vilas won 7.4 more points than Jimmy Connors relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jimmy Connors's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.0, backhand execution −2.5, return execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Guillermo Vilas | Jimmy Connors | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −1.1 | +1.6 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −1.8 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.5 | +0.4 | −1.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −2.1 | −2.4 |
| Forehand | −2.3 | +5.0 | +4.0 | +6.7 | −1.8 | +7.6 | −8.0 | −2.2 |
| Backhand | −0.7 | +1.7 | +3.2 | +4.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | −2.5 |
| Slice | −2.8 | −7.4 | +1.9 | −8.3 | −0.2 | −1.5 | +0.6 | −1.1 |
| Net | −0.3 | −0.2 | −1.9 | −2.4 | −0.6 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −2.2 | +0.3 | −0.8 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| All shots | −5.5 | −2.8 | +6.8 | −1.5 | −2.6 | +3.9 | −10.2 | −8.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Guillermo Vilas | Jimmy Connors | Net, Guillermo | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.2 | −2.6 | −3.6 | |
| 2 | +0.1 | −2.1 | +2.2 | |
| 3 | −1.4 | −2.0 | +0.6 | |
| 4 | +6.1 | −2.1 | +8.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Guillermo Vilas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% 40% | 21% 20% | 58% 71% |
| 2 | 41% 82% | 4% 100% | 56% 67% |
| 3 | 37% 74% | 10% 40% | 54% 46% |
| 4 | 25% 50% | 13% 50% | 63% 90% |
Set to set −0.18 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.84 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jimmy Connors serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 80% | 29% 88% | 54% 53% |
| 2 | 16% 67% | 11% 50% | 74% 71% |
| 3 | 47% 44% | 16% 67% | 37% 57% |
| 4 | 50% 43% | 11% 67% | 39% 27% |
Set to set −0.21 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Guillermo Vilas
24.2 points left on the table across 616 shots 3.93 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×25; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.18 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.89 pts
Jimmy Connors
19.9 points left on the table across 617 shots 3.22 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×12; FH inside-out rates higher · 1.04 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×18; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×15; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.81 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts