RallyIQ

ATP · Left-handed · 6 charted matches · 1977–1986

Guillermo Vilas

Against an average opponent

Serve points won 60.9% ±3.7 raw 56.7% · tour 63.4% · 582 points
Return points won 37.2% ±3.7 raw 37.4% · tour 36.6% · 577 points

Serve and return points won, refitted against every opponent at once so a record built on weak or strong opposition is put on the same scale. Career, all surfaces, with a 90% margin. Raw is the plain share of points won.

Value per 100 shots

Direction choice −0.79 ±0.13 better than 0% of ATP · raw −0.79
Shot selection −0.45 ±0.60 better than 13% of ATP · raw −0.44
Execution +0.88 ±1.06 better than 94% of ATP · raw +1.07
Points left on the table 4.15 per 100 shots vs best direction · lower than 3% of ATP

Points gained per 100 shots compared with an average tour player in the same position, adjusted for the strength of the opponents faced, with a 90% margin (shots clustered by match). Raw is before the opponent adjustment. Built on 3,496 shots.

Shot expected value

The share of points Guillermo Vilas goes on to win after each option in the positions they face most often, shrunk toward tour average when the sample is small. Showing the 8 most-used options; teal marks the best one with at least 30 shots.

Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 335 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 35% 36.3%±6.8 43.8%
BH crosscourt 18% 34.9%±8.8 48.0%
BH slice down the line 16% 29.5%±8.7 35.8%
BH down the line 13% 29.0%±9.4 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 11% 29.4%±9.8 35.1%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 35.9%±12.0 42.1%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle

position worth 51% to the average player · 257 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 22% 31.0%±8.7 52.7%
BH through the middle 18% 32.4%±9.5 46.8%
FH through the middle 15% 45.7%±10.8 47.4%
BH crosscourt 10% 39.8%±12.0 49.6%
FH down the line 8% 43.5%±12.9 52.0%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 46.4%±13.1 45.4%
BH slice down the line 6% 42.5%±13.6 46.5%
BH slice through the middle 5% 42.8%±14.2 45.7%

Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side

position worth 44% to the average player · 215 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
FH crosscourt 63% 37.4%±6.4 46.9%
FH through the middle 28% 35.3%±8.8 41.4%
FH down the line 9% 25.6%±11.5 44.8%

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side

position worth 46% to the average player · 167 shots

OptionUsedWin %Tour
BH through the middle 24% 44.6%±10.6 43.7%
BH slice through the middle 22% 48.3%±11.0 35.1%
BH slice down the line 16% 30.7%±11.1 37.1%
BH down the line 16% 43.1%±11.9 46.4%
BH crosscourt 8% 48.6%±14.1 47.6%
BH slice crosscourt 7% 35.9%±14.0 42.5%

Serve under pressure

Pressure predictability index −4 How much less varied Guillermo Vilas's first-serve direction gets on break points. Positive means easier to read. Based on 62 break-point first serves.

Deuce court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 22% 25% 62% / 73%
Body 13% 13% 52% / 63%
T 64% 63% 61% / 75%

261 normal · 16 break-point 1st serves

Ad court

1st serveUsageBreak ptWon when in
Wide 66% 52% ▼ 63% / 73%
Body 13% 9% 66% / 63%
T 21% 39% ▲ 72% / 72%

210 normal · 46 break-point 1st serves

Is the serve mix in equilibrium?

Game theory says a well-mixed server wins equally often with every direction they use. If one direction wins more, it's underused and points are being left behind. This is the minimax test Walker and Wooders ran on Wimbledon finals, applied to every charted first serve. Win rates include faults. "Optimal" allows for returners reading a habit. No measurable response (−0.05 ± 0.15 points per 100 serves for every 10 points of habitual usage), measured from ATP servers whose mix drifted between matches. Shifts stay within the range servers' habits actually vary, the only range that response was measured over.

Deuce court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide22% 50.7%±8.6 n=62 35% ▲
Body13% 47.7%±10.0 n=37 0% ▼
T64% 54.6%±5.7 n=178 65%

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.37).
Optimal mix: +0.6 per 100 first serves.

Ad court

1st serveUsagePoints wonOptimal
Wide63% 59.6%±5.8 n=162 63%
Body13% 57.9%±10.3 n=32 0% ▼
T24% 58.5%±8.4 n=62 37% ▲

Consistent with an optimal mix (p = 0.95).
Optimal mix: +0.5 per 100 first serves.

Exploitability 0.57 points per 100 first serves What the optimal mix would win over the current one, both courts. More exploitable than 100% of ATP servers. Tested on matches they weren't fitted on, ATP mixes picked this way win 0.33 per 100 first serves on average.

Repeating the previous direction to the same court: −6.0±7.8 points per 100 against switching. Negative means returners read repeats. Tour-wide, repeating costs women about 0.4 points per 100 and costs men nothing, so men's returners don't measurably anticipate direction. (266 repeats, 255 switches.)

Return by serve direction

Return points won against each serve direction, compared with the tour average.

ServeCourtDirectionPointsWonvs tour
1stAd courtBody 32 29% −7.8±9.5
1stAd courtT 54 35% +7.0±8.6
1stAd courtWide 55 24% −3.5±7.6
1stDeuce courtBody 30 35% −1.7±10.1
1stDeuce courtT 47 25% +0.3±8.2
1stDeuce courtWide 80 33% +5.7±7.4
2ndAd courtBody 43 53% +3.8±9.6
2ndAd courtT 50 50% +0.5±9.2
2ndAd courtWide 15 48% −0.6±12.2
2ndDeuce courtBody 35 46% −3.3±10.2
2ndDeuce courtT 16 52% +2.3±12.1
2ndDeuce courtWide 63 48% −0.3±8.5

Signature patterns

Recurring sequences that win more than Guillermo Vilas's own baseline, ranked by edge weighted by how often they're used.

Serve → +1

  1. Wide serve (ad court) → FH through the middle used 10.0% · won 64% · −0.1±10.7 vs own baseline

Return

  1. vs wide serve (deuce court) → BH through the middle, mid used 23.9% · won 42% · −1.5±9.5 vs own baseline

Rally, consecutive own shots

  1. FH crosscourt → BH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 44% · +8.1±11.1 vs own baseline
  2. FH through the middle → FH through the middle used 2.6% · won 42% · +5.6±11.5 vs own baseline
  3. BH slice through the middle → FH crosscourt used 3.1% · won 40% · +4.4±11.0 vs own baseline
  4. FH crosscourt → FH through the middle used 4.3% · won 39% · +3.4±10.1 vs own baseline
  5. BH through the middle → FH crosscourt used 4.7% · won 39% · +3.1±9.8 vs own baseline

Discovered sequences

Mined from every me → opponent → me run of three shots, with no templates. Ranked by how much more often Guillermo Vilas wins the point once the sequence happens, weighted by how often it happens. Think of them as chess openings.

  1. FH crosscourt → BH through the middle → FH through the middle used 0.9% · won 47% · +6.0±12.8 vs own baseline · +9.2 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mats Wilander (9/14)
  2. BH through the middle → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.3% · won 42% · +1.3±11.7 vs own baseline · −3.1 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mats Wilander (10/23)
  3. BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 40% · −0.4±12.1 vs own baseline · −5.9 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mats Wilander (8/20)
  4. BH slice crosscourt → FH crosscourt → BH slice down the line used 0.8% · won 38% · −2.8±12.7 vs own baseline · −6.5 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Bjorn Borg (5/15)
  5. BH through the middle → BH down the line → BH through the middle used 1.1% · won 37% · −4.0±12.0 vs own baseline · −15.4 vs tour on the same sequence Disrupted by Mats Wilander (6/19)
  6. BH slice down the line → BH crosscourt → FH crosscourt used 1.1% · won 36% · −4.8±11.8 vs own baseline · −15.4 vs tour on the same sequence

Strengths and vulnerabilities

Value per 100 shots compared with the average player hitting (strengths) or facing (vulnerabilities) the same shot. Only shot types seen at least 120 times.

Hurts opponents most with

BH to their forehand · rally+3.6136
FH to their backhand · rally+2.6282
FH to the middle · rally+1.9202
BH to the middle · rally+1.7249
FH to their forehand · rally+0.2159

Most exposed to

BH to the middle · rally−2.5251
FH to their backhand · rally−1.2372
BH to their forehand · rally−0.9214
BH to their backhand · rally−0.8200
FH to the middle · rally−0.5141

Active players who are best at the shot in the top weakness: Juan Carlos Prado Angelo, Raphael Collignon, Jack Draper, Pedro Martinez, Thiago Monteiro

Charted matches