Roland Garros · F · Clay · 11 Jun 1978
Bjorn Borg v Guillermo Vilas
84–49 in points · Bjorn Borg won
Why it went the way it did
Bjorn Borg won 15.6 more points than Guillermo Vilas relative to what the serve alone predicted. Guillermo Vilas's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −13.9, slice direction choices −3.6, serve 2nd execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Bjorn Borg | Guillermo Vilas | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.6 | −1.5 | −2.0 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | −0.2 | +1.0 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −2.0 | −2.0 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +2.5 | +3.2 | +0.5 | −0.5 | +1.5 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +1.0 | +3.7 | +3.2 | +7.9 | +0.2 | +2.1 | +5.0 | +7.3 |
| Backhand | −1.3 | +0.7 | +5.5 | +4.9 | −0.3 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +1.8 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | +0.5 | −0.5 | −3.6 | −13.9 | +5.1 | −12.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.0 | −1.7 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +0.3 |
| Touch | −0.4 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +0.6 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | +3.1 | +9.3 | +11.5 | −3.5 | −11.4 | +10.8 | −4.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Bjorn Borg | Guillermo Vilas | Net, Bjorn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.0 | −2.4 | +4.4 | |
| 2 | +5.7 | −0.5 | +6.2 | |
| 3 | +3.8 | −1.2 | +5.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Bjorn Borg serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 73% | 5% 100% | 43% 33% |
| 2 | 44% 75% | 17% 33% | 39% 86% |
| 3 | 54% 79% | 4% 100% | 42% 55% |
Set to set −2.43 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.22 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Guillermo Vilas serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 20% | 60% 22% | 7% 100% |
| 2 | 32% 25% | 24% 67% | 44% 45% |
| 3 | 38% 63% | 5% 100% | 57% 33% |
Set to set +1.56 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Bjorn Borg
13.6 points left on the table across 609 shots 2.24 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×26; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.08 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH down the line rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×3; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
Guillermo Vilas
21.6 points left on the table across 626 shots 3.44 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×44; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 2.79 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×27; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.89 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×25; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.84 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×18; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.98 pts